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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 07/23/2008
AUXL (Auxilium Pharmaceuticals--$35.79; +0.23; optionable): Drug products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/auxl.html
EARNINGS: 7-31-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Putting AUXL back on the report after its early July surge took it out of a 5.5 month base. Nice breakout to a new all-time high and now a very low volume, orderly test. Nice doji with tail Wednesday, tapping at the 18 day EMA on the low and then rebounding to flat on rising, above average volume. That shows the buyers went in on the low. Looking to do the same as AUXL continues higher on some more solid trade.
Volume: 871.586K Avg Volume: 699.659K
BUY POINT: $36.48 Volume=1M Target=$42.32 Stop=$34.78
POSITION: UQX LG - Dec. $35c (55 delta, 68 OI) or UQX IG - Sept. $35c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/auxl.html
Play Date: 07/23/2008
CPWR (Compuware--$10.51; +0.16; optionable): Application software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cpwr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-23-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A big 13 month base has formed and CPWR is rallying higher, moving up the past week to finally start the breakout Wednesday on the first above average volume since the first days of July. Solid foundation for a serious move higher. After hours earnings were out and CPWR beat by 3 cents and beat on revenues. It was up modestly after hours, a very good set up for a buy if it can continue the move early or make a modest dip and then turn back up. Very solid and a long time in the making of this base to set up a run higher.
Volume: 5.515M Avg Volume: 4.34M
BUY POINT: $10.66 Volume=5.5M Target=$12.95 Stop=$9.91
POSITION: CWQ KB - Nov. $10c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/cpwr.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/23/2008
COP (ConocoPhillips--$81.83; -2.48; optionable): Major oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cop.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-23-08 before the open
STATUS: Put. Earnings did not pull COP out of its very toppy price pattern. It formed an umbrella to from May to mid-July then tumbled lower only to find support last week and bounce back up through the 200 day SMA (83.86); looked as if it may have pulled out of the death spiral. Not. It turned over at the 10 day EMA (85.26) and plunked right back through the 200 day Wednesday on rising, above average volume. Money flow is drilling toward China. COP's price is following it. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 15.798M Avg Volume: 14.31M
BUY POINT: $81.54 Volume=16M Target=$76.55 Stop=$82.91
POSITION: COP UQ - Sept $85p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cop.html
Play Date: 07/23/2008
HEW (Hewitt Associates--$37.26; -0.24; optionable): Business services (e.g. tax prep)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hew.html
EARNINGS: 8-5-08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Formed the broad topping pattern from late February through early June, then broke sharply lower to start July with that general market selling. Nasty drop and then a rebound the past two weeks brought HEW back up to the 200 day SMA on Wednesday. It rallied early and broke through (37.85) . . . and then reversed its field on rising volume. Classic breakdown and then test of key resistance. Looking for a turn back down on rising trade to move in and play HEW as it heads lower. A move to the target lands a 50%ish gain.
Volume: 575.896K Avg Volume: 740.486K
BUY POINT: $36.72 Volume=800K Target=$33.65 Stop=$37.65
POSITION: HEW UH - Sept. $40p (-62 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hew.html
Play Date: 07/23/2008
NUE (Nucor--$58.60; -1.51; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nue.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Formed the topping pattern from March through June and then jumped off the ship to start July with a massive crash lower. It has fought to recovery, moving up above the 200 day SMA (65) it smashed on the way down, but it was a tennis match back and forth over that level. It broke lower again last week on volume as earnings were not pleasing, at least not enough for investors and a stock that surged the prior 4 years. It has moved laterally for four sessions and is starting to sag lower again. Ready to move in as NUE heads lower. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 6.521M Avg Volume: 7.448M
BUY POINT: $57.97 Volume=7.6M Target=$53.05 Stop=$60.11
POSITION: NUE UL - Sept. $60p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nue.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
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