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world stock market, us stock market
Begin Part 3 of 3
Plays from the weekend report:
Breakouts:
NYT (New York Times--$47.95; -0.56; optionable): Media
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nyt.html
STATUS: Broke out of the 7.5-month cup with handle Friday but has not made it much higher; Tuesday it did move over the breakout intraday high (that held the stock in check Monday) but today was back below the breakout closing price (48.09). Volume was lower at 552,100 (avg. 518,00). Look for a test back to the buy point at the 47.59 range. The 10 day MVA is at 47.32. Good buying. Target: 57.
BUY POINT: A hold for positions taken at 48.15. New buy point from here: on a test of 47.59 and bounce on higher volume or a break over 48.80 on above average volume. Stop Advisory (7%): 45.38
POSITION: Stock and/or July $45 calls to buy (NYT GI).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nyt.html
MAT (Mattel--$20.48; +0.09; optionable): Toys
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mat.html
STATUS: Did as we expected, moving higher on Tuesday after the 'breather' doji on Monday (MAT broke out of a 4-month cup with handle on Friday in a strong move). Problem is, MAT couldn't hold on to the high that day (20.90), pulling back into another doji, a tombstone. The stock did not fall back today (as such a doji only suggests), instead trying to move higher but on lower volume (2.7 million (avg. 2.1 million). The breakout was strong but the market just isn't giving it the backing for now. Remains a buy on the breakout up to 20.60; almost there, so will look for a pullback to the 19.66-19.90 range for new entry points. Target: 24
BUY POINT: Hit our buy point at 20.15. A hold. Stop Advisory (7%): 18.74. Pullback (aggressive): 20.15 on rising volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $17.50 calls to buy (MAT GW).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mat.html
CMA (Comerica--$63.40; -1.03; optionable): Regional Banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cma.html
STATUS: CMA popped up Friday with a nice gapping move on a breakout from the 7-month cup with handle pattern, but the move was cut short and now the stock is pulling back. The buy point was 63.70, so the move below that price is not what we want to see though volume was lower; as that decreases further CMA can hold the 10 day MVA (62.97). It was down to 822,000 (avg. 738,000). The 18 day MVA is at 62. High relative strength. Target: 77
BUY POINT: A hold for positions taken at 64.25, as long as the stock keeps support at the 10 or 18 day MVAs.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $55 calls to buy (CMA GK).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cma.html
Test of the breakout:
MOLX (Molex--$35.86; -0.15; optionable): Electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/molx.html
STATUS: After the stellar breakout over its 200 day MVA early this month, MOLX tried to mount another bounce after testing the 10 day MVA (now at 35) but volume has been falling off, resulting in a weaker bounce. Volume was stronger Wednesday, however (632,400; avg. 681,000) but MOLX pulled back with a doji, a star (it went as high as it did low, closing in the middle of the intraday range). It can go either way from here; on a pullback, look for support at the 10 day MVA (35). Target: 40.
BUY POINT: A hold for buys at 35.50. Stop Advisory (7%): 33.02.
POSITION: Stock and/or May $30 calls to buy (OXQ EF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/molx.html
Moving average bounces:
VSEA (Varian Semi--$41.54; -1.46; optionable): Chip Equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
STATUS: Made the strong run off the 200 day MVA early this month, tested the 18 day MVA and on Friday bounced on a good surge in volume. However, volume has not supported the stock well since; price has moved up but volume was back below average. Wednesday VSEA closed back under its 10 day MVA (41.72) with volume rising to average levels at 534,200 as semiconductors had a rough session. It will try to test the 18 day again, and we will want it to hold there (40.80). Target is 50 when it does give the strong move back up.
BUY POINT: A hold for aggressive buys at 42.25. Will look for a bounce from the 18 day, with new aggressive buy points at 42.50 on strong, above average volume.
POSITION: Stock and/or May (UES EG) or August (UES HG) $35 calls to buy.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vsea.html
Basing stocks:
WABC (Westamerica--$42.35; -0.87; no options): Regional Banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wabc.html
STATUS: Hit the buy point of 43.65 on Monday and Tuesday's intraday highs (in the handle to its 14.5-month double bottom with handle base) but has not been able to follow through. Volume dropped back immediately, holding the stock above support at 43 until Wednesday, when it surged just above average to 136,100 (avg. 126,000). That sent WABC down to close at the 18 day MVA (42.29). Don't like the stronger volume selling, and while the stock remains in an uptrend even if it hits the 50 day at 41, we won't stick around if it breaks support here. Target for breakout is 52.
BUY POINT: A hold for positions taken at 43.65 if the stock can bounce. Stop Advisory (7%): 40.59 for longer term positions.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wabc.html
PL (Protective Life--$31.19; -0.64; optionable): Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pl.html
STATUS: Was in the handle of its 8.5-month cup with handle, but broke support at the 18 day MVA (31.37) on rising volume (still below average at 190,700; average is 217,000). We were looking for a breakout over 32.49 (buy point), not this. It may bounce back up from 31, and if it does should make a quick move back over the 18 day to put it back into play. Otherwise, we are moving on. High money flow and good buying continue. Target: 39
BUY POINT: Breakout: 32.49 on continued strong volume (min. breakout volume met at 323,000). Stop Advisory (7%): 30.22
POSITION: Stock and/or July $25 calls to buy (PL GE).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pl.html
GCI (Gannett--$76.71; -1.14; optionable): Publishing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gci.html
STATUS: Back down in the flying plateau pattern after a strong shot of volume on Tuesday could not break GCI out. It hit the buy point at 77.20 on Monday, and was looking good Tuesday until pulling back and showing a tombstone doji. That can mean a move down, just what the stock did today, volume lower at 933,500 (avg. 920,000). Still, GCI is holding at the 10 day MVA, and it can re-test the 18 day MVA if it wants to, and remain in the pattern. Will continue to monitor. High money flow. Target: 93
BUY POINT: New: 77.95 on volume of 1.2 million or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 72.49
POSITION: Stock and/or July $70 calls to buy (GCI GN).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gci.html
Puts:
DRI (Darden--$39.35; +0.08; optionable): Restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dri.html
STATUS: Closed a cent below its 50 day MVA Wednesday, volume continuing to fall (520,500; avg. 887,000). We are looking for DRI to let loose here and fall for the put play; target is the 200 day MVA at 32. It has moved laterally for three days showing dojis each day. The close below the 50 day MVA is promising; we will just want to see the move down on rising, not falling, volume.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 38.50 on preferably rising volume.
POSITION: July $45 puts to buy (DRI SI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dri.html
EMBT (Embarcadero Tech--$14.11; -0.90; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/embt.html
STATUS: EMBT hit the buy point at 13.95 in today's trading; it closed back above that price but is looking ready to sell further. Volume was stronger and above average at 294,500 (avg. 272,000); a solid move, so a hold for current positions. EMBT can break down here in the 4.5-month head and shoulders pattern. Target is 10.
BUY POINT: A hold for buys at 13.95.
POSITION: May $20 puts to buy (MBQ QD).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/embt.html
CONTINUED PLAYS:
Puts:
MU (Micron Tech--$32.50; -1.30; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mu.html
STATUS: Were looking for MU to break back below the 200 day MVA after it crossed back over Friday; it did that today, closing just under that level with a doji on rising volume. Can try to test the 200 day, but we are holding positions in case it doesn't. Buy point was 32.50. Target: 27.50.
BUY POINT: A hold for put buys at 32.50.
POSITION: July $45 puts to buy (MU SI).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mu.html
BASING/TRADING RANGES:
SXT (Sensient Tech--$22.19; -0.22; optionable): Food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sxt.html
STATUS: Made the breakout Monday, but not with the strength of volume we wanted. SXT has been in a handle to its 7-month cup with handle, but could only reach up to 22.75 Tuesday before pulling back with a 'tombstone' doji. Sure enough, SXT fell back off of that candlestick, but volume was low (82,100; average 194,400) and it is holding the prior handle high (22.05). Looking for a hold here and strong move back up off the test. Continued excellent money flow. Target: 27
BUY POINT: After showing it can hold 22, a move back over 22.50 on above average volume. Stop Advisory (7%): 21.02.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $20 calls to buy (SXT GD).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sxt.html
SHW (Sherwin-Williams--$29.35; +0.22; optionable): Building Materials
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shw.html
STATUS: Having trouble at the breakout high. SHW tested the breakout from the 2-month reverse head and shoulders (that was in a 3.5-month flat base), and has made a move back up, but cannot hold a move over the prior high of 29.47. The last two sessions SHW has reached over that level (29.65 Tuesday), pulling back to close each day. After light volume on the move up, volume was way up and strong on the reversal from the high Tuesday, and down but solid today (793,200; average 700,000). The pattern indicates a pullback, wit the recent support at the 10 day (28.69), and former pattern highs at 28. Money flow and buying look good. Target: 34
BUY POINT: If it can catch support at the 28.50 range, looking for a move back over 29 with volume of 1 million or better. Stop Advisory (7%): 27.06
POSITION: Stock and/or June $25 calls to buy (SHW FE).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/shw.html
IBM ($105.50; -1.99; optionable): Computer Hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html
STATUS: Formed a reverse head and shoulders pattern, and is holding up pretty well on the support of the 18 day MVA (105.37) but is under resistance of the 50 day (107.24). Overall not a bad day all things considered. We are looking for a breakout from the pattern over the 200 day MVA at 108.75, but at this point we will need to see IBM hold support and make another run in a stronger market. Has a bit of work before it gets back up to the buy point.
BUY POINT: 109.10 on volume in the range of 8 million or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 101.46
POSITION: Stock and/or July $100 calls to buy (IBM GT).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ibm.html
GPC (Genuine Parts--$37.61; -0.47; optionable): Auto Parts Wholesale
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpc.html
STATUS: Broke out of its 11-week cup with handle base Tuesday, but volume was not breakout caliber and the stock retreated with the market today. Volume was up on the pullback (449,200; average 339,000), but GPC held on the test of its former handle high 37.61 and 10 day MVA, which it tapped at its low of 37.30. We will see if it can hold, and if it can summon the volume on a move back up. Target is 45.
BUY POINT: After showing it can hold here, a move back over 38 on volume of 500,000 or better. Stop Advisory (7%): 35.43
POSITION: Stock and/or August $35 calls to buy (GPC HF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gpc.html
NATI (National Instruments--$41.65; -0.27; optionable): Computer Peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nati.html
STATUS: NATI continues in the handle to its 9-week double bottom base. It is holding the 10 day MVA (41.16), showing another doji today after tapping near the 18 day (40.28) at its low. Good action in the pattern up to here, with volume again low today at 79,300 (average 152,000). Looking for stronger volume to break the stock out of the pattern. Excellent money flow. Target is 50.
BUY POINT: 42.72 on volume in the range of 270,000. Stop Advisory (7%): 39.73.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $35 calls to buy (SJQ FG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nati.html
SLVN (Sylvan Learning--$26.15; +0.04; optionable): Education & Training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slvn.html
STATUS: Tried a move up today, but pulled back off of an intraday high of 26.44. Volume surged, as we were looking for on a move (755,500; average 434,400), but SLVN did not hit the buy point. The stock is moving in a handle to the 7-month cup base, having recently shown multiple dojis over the 18 day MVA (25.64). Still looking for a move that it can hold. Target: 32
BUY POINT: 27.05 on continued strong volume (674,000 or higher). Stop Advisory (7%): 25.16
POSITION: Stock and/or May $22.50 calls to buy (NQV EX).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slvn.html
SLAB (Silicon Laboratories--$33.25; -1.65; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slab.html
STATUS: Dropped back today, but things are not catastrophic. SLAB remains in a handle to its 10-week cup base, although it did give up recent support of the 10 day MVA (33.99), holding the 18 day (32.88). Volume was up on the selling, but still below average at 536,300 (average 671,000). We will see if SLAB will crack or solidify here, and look for a move back up in the handle, but has some work to do before hitting a buy point. Still showing great money flow and good buying. Target on a breakout: 45
BUY POINT: We will see if it can start back up. The breakout is up at 37.29 on volume of 1 million or higher.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (QFJ GG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slab.html
WWW (Wolverine World Wide--$17.95; -0.25; optionable): Apparel Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/www.html
STATUS: WWW made a strong push last Friday in its handle, and continued up to breakout Tuesday, but each successive move was smaller and on decreasing volume. That spells weakness, especially when the volume is below average, and today WWW turned back. However, the drop was also on lower volume (54,200; average 140,000), and the stock tapped 17.77 at its low before recovering. Not too bad, and we will see if it can hold on and produce a stronger move from the 6.5-month cup with handle. Good buying, strong money flow. Target: 22
BUY POINT: After showing it can hold the 17.60 range, we can look at new or additional positions on a move over 18.20 on volume of 210,000 or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 17.02
POSITION: Stock and/or June $15 calls to buy (WWW FC).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/www.html
QLGC (Qlogic--$44.86; -2.40; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
STATUS: Could not hold the 50 day MVA (46.74) and give us an upside play, instead falling through that support today. Volume was not huge, coming in steady at 8.8 million (average 10 million), and it now faces the 200 day MVA below at 43.76, and there are also November and December prices at that level. In a further weak market, we can change our attention to a downside play. Target: 38.
BUY POINT: In a weak Nasdaq, a drop through the 200 day on increased volume.
POSITION: May $55 puts to buy (QLC QK - no open interest as of yet).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qlgc.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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world stock market
us stock market
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