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us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/24/2008
JBHT (JB Hunt Transportation--$36.51; -1.74; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jbht.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-14-08
STATUS: Test breakout. JBHT got some mileage out of its earnings announcement and the drop in oil, both combining to break it out of its 10 week base formed from May to early July. That consolidated a larger 9 month pattern starting a year ago; nice large and solid foundation setting up a nice run. It made its first move and how it is testing, falling back Thursday as oil bounced modestly. Held the 10 day EMA on the session low with lower volume as it comes back. That shows few sellers, and after this test we look to pick up JBHT as it makes the bounce higher.
Volume: 3.504M Avg Volume: 2.654M
BUY POINT: $37.28 Volume=4M Target=$43.95 Stop=$35.77
POSITION: JHQ KG - Nov. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jbht.html
Play Date: 07/24/2008
USO (United States Oil Fund ETF--$101.46; +1.44; optionable): Oil tracking ETF
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uso.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After that strong run through mid-July and the subsequent break of the near and lower trendlines, USO finds itself at the 50 day EMA (106.28), showing a doji Thursday, indicating it is ready to bounce back up after a sharp, ugly drop. We are looking to make a quick upside play of the bounce, back up to the lower trendline for starters. Using options on the play that gives us a 28%ish gain.
Volume: 12.061M Avg Volume: 13.422M
BUY POINT: $102.04 Volume=14M Target=$106.85 Stop=$99.38
POSITION: IYS IV - Sept. $100c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/uso.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/24/2008
AFSI (Am Trust Financial Services--$13.31; -0.05; optionable): Insurance brokers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/afsi.html
EARNINGS: 7-29-08 after the close
STATUS: Put. After an ugly spiral lower from April to the second week of July, AFSI rebounded the past two weeks, rallying up to the 50 day EMA (13.41) Wednesday and Thursday, reaching through those levels on the intraday highs but unable to close above those levels on the close. The inability to hold a move over those levels shows weakness at that level. Money flow is low and turning down ahead of price. Ready to move in as it continues lower. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 312.655K Avg Volume: 338.789K
BUY POINT: $12.98 Volume=350K Target=$11.22 Stop=$13.92
POSITION: QFF UC - Sept. $15p (-63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/afsi.html
Play Date: 07/24/2008
AG (Agco Corp.--$51.50; -1.97; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ag.html
EARNINGS: 7-29-08
STATUS: Put. Made a big second top in April where it broke down. Tried to hold the 200 day SMA up at 60 but two tries failed to hold. After the June to July selling it bounced this month, but this time it could only make it to the 50 day EMA (54), showing a move through that level Wednesday that reversed to close below it. Rolled down Thursday, managing a close at the 10 and 18 day EMA. Money flow is heading lower ahead of price and we are looking for AG to follow it. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 1.844M Avg Volume: 2.223M
BUY POINT: $51.38 Volume=2.2M Target=$45.11 Stop=$52.77
POSITION: AG UK - Sept. $55p (-45 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ag.html
Play Date: 07/24/2008
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30 EFT)--$113.60; -2.63; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Put. After the rebound from the downtrend, DIA is turning back down, failing at the January 2008 lows and turning over once more. It closed below the 10 day EMA (114.04), turning back from resistance and breaking near support. Looking to ride it lower for another test down toward 110 and perhaps even lower this time. A move to our initial target lands a 36%ish gain.
Volume: 22.466M Avg Volume: 17.936M
BUY POINT: $113.28 Volume=25M Target=$110.05 Stop=$114.41
POSITION: DIA UJ - Sept. $114p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dia.html
Play Date: 07/24/2008
NLC (Nalco Holding Co.--$20.90; -1.40; optionable): Synthetic chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nlc.html
EARNINGS: 7-29-08 after the close
STATUS: Head and shoulders. NLC peaked in early June then gapped lower, bounced to form the right side of a 7 week head and shoulders pattern. Broke sharply lower into early July, held at 20 and worked laterally, then bounced in the market bounce. Made it up to the 50 day EMA (22.15) but then rolled over Thursday. Volume did not explode higher, but it was an ugly break lower. Money flow is bad and heading lower. Looking for NLC to follow it. A ride down to the target lands a 40+%ish gain.
Volume: 835.936K Avg Volume: 1.019M
BUY POINT: $20.77 Volume=1M Target=$18.91 Stop=$21.52
POSITION: NLC UX - Sept. $22.50p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nlc.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
top stock pick
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