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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Only the new plays this evening until Jon Johnson is back for the weekend report.
New Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 07/24/2008
JBHT (JB Hunt Transportation--$36.51; -1.74; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jbht.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-14-08
STATUS: Test breakout. JBHT got some mileage out of its earnings announcement and the drop in oil, both combining to break it out of its 10 week base formed from May to early July. That consolidated a larger 9 month pattern starting a year ago; nice large and solid foundation setting up a nice run. It made its first move and how it is testing, falling back Thursday as oil bounced modestly. Held the 10 day EMA on the session low with lower volume as it comes back. That shows few sellers, and after this test we look to pick up JBHT as it makes the bounce higher.
Volume: 3.504M Avg Volume: 2.654M
BUY POINT: $37.28 Volume=4M Target=$43.95 Stop=$35.77
POSITION: JHQ KG - Nov. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jbht.html
Play Date: 07/24/2008
PKI (Perkinelmer--$28.37; -0.28; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pki.html
EARNINGS: 7-24-08 after the close
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. PKI is working in a large 10 month base, spending the last 8 weeks in the handle, forming something of a double bottom with handle at the end of a larger double bottom with handle. Making a higher low this week at near support after a strong Tuesday surge. After hours earnings beat and guidance was up. May gap on us in the morning; if so we will let it make the first test, see how it holds, then grab some positions as it moves back up. After that we can look for the first test of the breakout to give us the next solid entry point.
Volume: 1.425M Avg Volume: 1.208M
BUY POINT: $29.36 Volume=1.8M Target=$33.95 Stop=$28.11
POSITION: PKI LG - Dec. $30c (53 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pki.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 07/24/2008
CMED (China Medical Technologies--$46.33; -1.63; optionable): Chinese medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmed.html
EARNINGS: 8-4-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Seeing this pattern a bit of late: a larger double bottom with handle with the handle forming its own little double bottom with handle over the past four weeks. CMED rallied with the market, moving off its second leg in the double bottom. Pulled back some Thursday on low volume, tapping the 10 day EMA (45.27) on the low and then rebounding to recoup some losses. It looks ready to test a bit more toward the 10 day EMA and when it bounces off that on solid trade we start picking up some positions.
Volume: 334.797K Avg Volume: 539.611K
BUY POINT: $47.04 Volume=800K Target=$56.95 Stop=$45.12
POSITION: QCY LI - Dec. $45c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/cmed.html
Downside: Have to be ready to take advantage of the downside as it resumes.
Play Date: 07/24/2008
AFSI (Am Trust Financial Services--$13.31; -0.05; optionable): Insurance brokers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/afsi.html
EARNINGS: 7-29-08 after the close
STATUS: Put. After an ugly spiral lower from April to the second week of July, AFSI rebounded the past two weeks, rallying up to the 50 day EMA (13.41) Wednesday and Thursday, reaching through those levels on the intraday highs but unable to close above those levels on the close. The inability to hold a move over those levels shows weakness at that level. Money flow is low and turning down ahead of price. Ready to move in as it continues lower. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 312.655K Avg Volume: 338.789K
BUY POINT: $12.98 Volume=350K Target=$11.22 Stop=$13.92
POSITION: QFF UC - Sept. $15p (-63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/afsi.html
Play Date: 07/24/2008
AG (Agco Corp.--$51.50; -1.97; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ag.html
EARNINGS: 7-29-08
STATUS: Put. Made a big second top in April where it broke down. Tried to hold the 200 day SMA up at 60 but two tries failed to hold. After the June to July selling it bounced this month, but this time it could only make it to the 50 day EMA (54), showing a move through that level Wednesday that reversed to close below it. Rolled down Thursday, managing a close at the 10 and 18 day EMA. Money flow is heading lower ahead of price and we are looking for AG to follow it. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 1.844M Avg Volume: 2.223M
BUY POINT: $51.38 Volume=2.2M Target=$45.11 Stop=$52.77
POSITION: AG UK - Sept. $55p (-45 delta, low OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ag.html
Play Date: 07/24/2008
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30 EFT)--$113.60; -2.63; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Put. After the rebound from the downtrend, DIA is turning back down, failing at the January 2008 lows and turning over once more. It closed below the 10 day EMA (114.04), turning back from resistance and breaking near support. Looking to ride it lower for another test down toward 110 and perhaps even lower this time. A move to our initial target lands a 36%ish gain.
Volume: 22.466M Avg Volume: 17.936M
BUY POINT: $113.28 Volume=25M Target=$110.05 Stop=$114.41
POSITION: DIA UJ - Sept. $114p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dia.html
Play Date: 07/24/2008
NLC (Nalco Holding Co.--$20.90; -1.40; optionable): Synthetic chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nlc.html
EARNINGS: 7-29-08 after the close
STATUS: Head and shoulders. NLC peaked in early June then gapped lower, bounced to form the right side of a 7 week head and shoulders pattern. Broke sharply lower into early July, held at 20 and worked laterally, then bounced in the market bounce. Made it up to the 50 day EMA (22.15) but then rolled over Thursday. Volume did not explode higher, but it was an ugly break lower. Money flow is bad and heading lower. Looking for NLC to follow it. A ride down to the target lands a 40+%ish gain.
Volume: 835.936K Avg Volume: 1.019M
BUY POINT: $20.77 Volume=1M Target=$18.91 Stop=$21.52
POSITION: NLC UX - Sept. $22.50p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nlc.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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