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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 07/26/2008
CMED (China Medical Technologies--$46.85; +0.52; optionable): Chinese medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmed.html
EARNINGS: 8-4-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Seeing this pattern quite a bit of late: a larger double bottom with handle with the handle forming its own little double bottom with handle over the past four weeks. CMED rallied with the market, moving off its second leg in the double bottom. Pulled back some Thursday on low volume, tapping the 10 day EMA (45.27) on the low and then rebounding to recoup some losses, bouncing a big more Friday. It looks ready to test a bit more toward the 10 day EMA and when it bounces off that on solid trade we start picking up some positions.
Volume: 359.79K Avg Volume: 546.028K
BUY POINT: $47.88 Volume=800K Target=$56.95 Stop=$45.12
POSITION: QCY LI - Dec. $45c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cmed.html
Play Date: 07/26/2008
CMTL (Comtech Telecom--$51.16; +1.88; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmtl.html
EARNINGS: Announced June 4
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Friday CMTL started the breakout from its nicely formed 7 month base, but volume did not show up for the move. Great looking base from this perennial leader, forming after a strong run higher and laying the foundation for a new run higher. Solid money flow is leading higher ahead of price. Need to see some more volume, however, as it continues the break higher.
Volume: 204.358K Avg Volume: 287.445K
BUY POINT: $51.32 Volume=425K Target=$58.95 Stop=$48.88
POSITION: CQH JJ - Oct. $50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cmtl.html
Play Date: 07/26/2008
IBM (International Business Machines--$128.53; -1.47; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After breaking higher last week on a strong earnings report, IBM is moving laterally just below 130, trading in a flat range. It is forming the consolidation to its 8 week pattern, the handle shakeout at the prior high reached in May as the base started. After this test of the 10 day EMA (127.58) we are looking for a renewed breakout on volume to move into new positions.
Volume: 7.565M Avg Volume: 8.041M
BUY POINT: $130.48 Volume=10M Target=$145.95 Stop=$127.32
POSITION: IBM JF - Oct. $130c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ibm.html
Play Date: 07/26/2008
KSU (Kansas City Southern--$48.00; +0.08; optionable): Rails
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ksu.html
EARNINGS: 7-31-08 before the open
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Broke higher last week on strong volume, rallying to the June high at 50 and then ending the week with a test of near support at the 10 day EMA (47) before bouncing to close flat. Nice little 8 week base formed after the strong April to May run from a larger 11 month base, consolidating the run. Nice set up and looking for a new breakout to move into the stock.
Volume: 1.982M Avg Volume: 1.164M
BUY POINT: $48.48 Volume=1.7M Target=$55.75 Stop=$46.22
POSITION: KSU LI - Dec. $45c (61 delta, 95 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ksu.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 07/26/2008
UNP (Union Pacific--$77.49; +0.31; optionable): Rails
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/unp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Transports are back in game after a test to form new bases, and UNP is shaping up another good entry point as it works laterally the past two sessions, starting a handle consolidation to its 8 week base. Good action, tapping down to the 50 day SMA (75.57) Friday and then rebounding to close flat. Nice action to set up a new breakout to a new high. Looks as if it will take 2 to 3 more days to finish forming the handle. Our cue to move in is on a renewed bounce higher on strong volume.
Volume: 3.326M Avg Volume: 5.952M
BUY POINT: $78.55 Volume=7.5M Target=$89.95 Stop=$75.45
POSITION: UNP KA - Nov. $77.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/unp.html
DOWNSIDE:
Play Date: 07/26/2008
ADM (Archer Daniels Midland--$29.66; -0.23; optionable): Corn, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adm.html
EARNINGS: 8-5-08
STATUS: Put. ADM is moving in a continuing downtrend, rallying the past week with the market to test the downtrend resistance at the 18 day EMA (30.64), unable to push through Thursday and starting to reverse. Third test of this resistance since the break lower in late May, leaving another good downside run or two before it needs to come up higher for air. Money flow is weak, moving lower ahead of the price. Looks ready to follow it lower as this bounce fails at resistance. A move to the target lands a 69%ish gain.
Volume: 4.13M Avg Volume: 8.291M
BUY POINT: $29.48 Volume=8.5M Target=$26.02 Stop=$30.31
POSITION: ADM UF - Sept. $30p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/adm.html
Play Date: 07/26/2008
EEV (UltraShort Emerging Markets ETF--$84.83; +0.63; optionable): Emerging markets upside short play
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eev.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. This is an ETF that moves inversely with the sector it tracks. Thus as the emerging markets fall, EEV rises. Sold off in June to early July, recovered here in July, then started to sell off again Thursday and Friday. Thus EEV moved higher to end the week. Looking for further breakdown in the foreign ETF's to give us the entry point.
Volume: 1.233M Avg Volume: 818.603K
BUY POINT: $85.11 Volume=1.2M Target=$92.00 Stop=$81.77
POSITION: EEV IQ - Sept. $85c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eev.html
Play Date: 07/26/2008
JBX (Jack in the Box--$21.01; -0.03; optionable): Fast food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jbx.html
EARNINGS: Mid-May
STATUS: Put. Jack would not be happy with his stock's performance as it is in a continuing downtrend for a year now. It sold off in July, then rebounded with the market in the recent rally, peaking out at the 50 day EMA (22.85) Wednesday and rolling over Thursday. Money flow is continuing lower ahead of price. Looks primed to break lower once more. A move to the target lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 720K Avg Volume: 1.1M
BUY POINT: $20.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$18.65 Stop=$21.77
POSITION: JBX UX - Sept. $22.50p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jbx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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