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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
NEW PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/26/2008
BKE (Buckle, Inc.--$49.98; -0.45; no options): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bke.html
EARNINGS: 8-21-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong move higher early last week, trying the breakout from an 8 week base, showing strong volume on Tuesday as it made the break higher. Slipped back on low volume Thursday and Friday, holding over near support at the 10 day EMA (49.39) on the intraday lows. A retailer that is in great shape. Just want some more volume as it makes the next upside break.
Volume: 430.083K Avg Volume: 422.759K
BUY POINT: $52.05 Volume=550K Target=$59.95 Stop=$49.22
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bke.html
Play Date: 07/26/2008
CMED (China Medical Technologies--$46.85; +0.52; optionable): Chinese medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmed.html
EARNINGS: 8-4-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Seeing this pattern quite a bit of late: a larger double bottom with handle with the handle forming its own little double bottom with handle over the past four weeks. CMED rallied with the market, moving off its second leg in the double bottom. Pulled back some Thursday on low volume, tapping the 10 day EMA (45.27) on the low and then rebounding to recoup some losses, bouncing a big more Friday. It looks ready to test a bit more toward the 10 day EMA and when it bounces off that on solid trade we start picking up some positions.
Volume: 359.79K Avg Volume: 546.028K
BUY POINT: $47.88 Volume=800K Target=$56.95 Stop=$45.12
POSITION: QCY LI - Dec. $45c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cmed.html
Play Date: 07/26/2008
CMTL (Comtech Telecom--$51.16; +1.88; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmtl.html
EARNINGS: Announced June 4
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Friday CMTL started the breakout from its nicely formed 7 month base, but volume did not show up for the move. Great looking base from this perennial leader, forming after a strong run higher and laying the foundation for a new run higher. Solid money flow is leading higher ahead of price. Need to see some more volume, however, as it continues the break higher.
Volume: 204.358K Avg Volume: 287.445K
BUY POINT: $51.32 Volume=425K Target=$58.95 Stop=$48.88
POSITION: CQH JJ - Oct. $50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cmtl.html
Play Date: 07/26/2008
IBM (International Business Machines--$128.53; -1.47; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-17-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After breaking higher last week on a strong earnings report, IBM is moving laterally just below 130, trading in a flat range. It is forming the consolidation to its 8 week pattern, the handle shakeout at the prior high reached in May as the base started. After this test of the 10 day EMA (127.58) we are looking for a renewed breakout on volume to move into new positions.
Volume: 7.565M Avg Volume: 8.041M
BUY POINT: $130.48 Volume=10M Target=$145.95 Stop=$127.32
POSITION: IBM JF - Oct. $130c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ibm.html
Play Date: 07/26/2008
PKI (Perkinelmer--$29.36; +0.99; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pki.html
EARNINGS: 7-24-08 after the close
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. PKI gapped out of a large 10 month base, spending the last 8 weeks in the handle, forming something of a double bottom with handle at the end of a larger double bottom with handle. Made a higher low this week at near support after a strong Tuesday surge then Thursday after its earnings beat and guidance was up. Gapped up on us in the morning, testing intraday and rebounding. If it can continue the move this week it is a buy.
Volume: 3.167M Avg Volume: 1.208M
BUY POINT: $29.55 Volume=1.8M Target=$33.95 Stop=$28.11
POSITION: PKI LG - Dec. $30c (53 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pki.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 07/26/2008
UNP (Union Pacific--$77.49; +0.31; optionable): Rails
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/unp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-24-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Transports are back in game after a test to form new bases, and UNP is shaping up another good entry point as it works laterally the past two sessions, starting a handle consolidation to its 8 week base. Good action, tapping down to the 50 day SMA (75.57) Friday and then rebounding to close flat. Nice action to set up a new breakout to a new high. Looks as if it will take 2 to 3 more days to finish forming the handle. Our cue to move in is on a renewed bounce higher on strong volume.
Volume: 3.326M Avg Volume: 5.952M
BUY POINT: $78.55 Volume=7.5M Target=$89.95 Stop=$75.45
POSITION: UNP KA - Nov. $77.50c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/unp.html
DOWNSIDE:
Play Date: 07/26/2008
ADM (Archer Daniels Midland--$29.66; -0.23; optionable): Corn, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adm.html
EARNINGS: 8-5-08
STATUS: Put. ADM is moving in a continuing downtrend, rallying the past week with the market to test the downtrend resistance at the 18 day EMA (30.64), unable to push through Thursday and starting to reverse. Third test of this resistance since the break lower in late May, leaving another good downside run or two before it needs to come up higher for air. Money flow is weak, moving lower ahead of the price. Looks ready to follow it lower as this bounce fails at resistance. A move to the target lands a 69%ish gain.
Volume: 4.13M Avg Volume: 8.291M
BUY POINT: $29.48 Volume=8.5M Target=$26.02 Stop=$30.31
POSITION: ADM UF - Sept. $30p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/adm.html
Play Date: 07/26/2008
EEV (UltraShort Emerging Markets ETF--$84.83; +0.63; optionable): Emerging markets upside short play
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eev.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. This is an ETF that moves inversely with the sector it tracks. Thus as the emerging markets fall, EEV rises. Sold off in June to early July, recovered here in July, then started to sell off again Thursday and Friday. Thus EEV moved higher to end the week. Looking for further breakdown in the foreign ETF's to give us the entry point.
Volume: 1.233M Avg Volume: 818.603K
BUY POINT: $85.11 Volume=1.2M Target=$92.00 Stop=$81.77
POSITION: EEV IQ - Sept. $85c (57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eev.html
Play Date: 07/26/2008
JBX (Jack in the Box--$21.01; -0.03; optionable): Fast food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jbx.html
EARNINGS: Mid-May
STATUS: Put. Jack would not be happy with his stock's performance as it is in a continuing downtrend for a year now. It sold off in July, then rebounded with the market in the recent rally, peaking out at the 50 day EMA (22.85) Wednesday and rolling over Thursday. Money flow is continuing lower ahead of price. Looks primed to break lower once more. A move to the target lands us a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 720K Avg Volume: 1.1M
BUY POINT: $20.88 Volume=1.1M Target=$18.65 Stop=$21.77
POSITION: JBX UX - Sept. $22.50p (-54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jbx.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/18/2008
IXYS (Ixys Corporation--$12.45; +0.45; optionable): Power semiconductors, integrated circuits, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ixys.html
EARNINGS: Late August
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Rising volume Friday as IXYS started higher off near support at the 18 day EMA. Not great trade, but moving nicely and looking for the breakout this coming week. To recap: After a roaring surge in late May on its last earnings report IXYS has formed the current 6 week base over a rising 50 day EMA that still has some catching up to get to IXYS. IXYS formed this base on top of the October peak that started the 8 month base IXYS jumped out of in May. A nice consolidation that used the market selling in early July to put in the second bottom to the base and lay the groundwork for the next breakout and run higher toward a 3-year high. Very solid. There are a group of semiconductor stocks moving to the fore similar to a cycling team moving to the front of the peloton to position itself for the ending sprint. Okay, a bit heavy on the Tour de France references of late, but when you have a sprinter such as Mark Cavendish taking four sprint stages you tend to get carried away.
Volume: 226.273K Avg Volume: 248.622K
BUY POINT: $12.66 Volume=350K Target=$15.31 Stop=$11.77
POSITION: UXS JV - Oct. $12.50c (49 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ixys.html
Play Date: 07/24/2008
JBHT (JB Hunt Transportation--$36.35; -0.16; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jbht.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-14-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Still testing near support at the 10 day EMA (36.09), tapping that level Friday on lower trade. Nice test and in great position to make the next break higher to continue the breakout move. To recap: JBHT got some mileage out of its earnings announcement and the drop in oil, both combining to break it out of its 10 week base formed from May to early July. That consolidated a larger 9 month pattern starting a year ago; nice large and solid foundation setting up a nice run. It made its first move and how it is testing, falling back Thursday as oil bounced modestly. Held the 10 day EMA on the session low with lower volume as it comes back. That shows few sellers, and after this test we look to pick up JBHT as it makes the bounce higher.
Volume: 3.11M Avg Volume: 2.654M
BUY POINT: $37.28 Volume=4M Target=$43.95 Stop=$35.77
POSITION: JHQ KG - Nov. $35c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jbht.html
Play Date: 07/23/2008
MFLX (Multi-Fineline Electronics--$27.19; +1.32; optionable): Printed circuit boards
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mflx.html
EARNINGS: Early August
STATUS: Breakout test/50 day EMA test. Held the 10 day EMA on the Thursday test and bounced Friday on rising, above average volume. Looking solid as it continues off the 50 day EMA, and on a continued move this week it is a buy. To recap: Strong volume the past two sessions as MFLX comes off a test of the June breakout from a 12 week base. Great surge on that move and then in the July selling MFLX came back to test, holding the 50 day EMA (24.51) on the lows last week. Then it got some volume as it took off to the upside. Strong money flow is moving higher ahead of the price and MFLX looks to be starting to follow it upside.
Volume: 355.766K Avg Volume: 316.975K
BUY POINT: $27.74 Volume=385K Target=$32.95 Stop=$25.88
POSITION: FUX KE - Nov. $25c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mflx.html
DOWNSIDE:
Play Date: 07/24/2008
AFSI (Am Trust Financial Services--$13.26; -0.05; optionable): Insurance brokers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/afsi.html
EARNINGS: 7-29-08 after the close
STATUS: Put. A third doji below the 50 day EMA (13.40) after the bounce with the market from the last plunge. Needed to come for air, has done so. Now looking for the turn back down. To recap: After an ugly spiral lower from April to the second week of July, AFSI rebounded the past two weeks, rallying up to the 50 day EMA (13.41) Wednesday and Thursday, reaching through those levels on the intraday highs but unable to close above those levels on the close. The inability to hold a move over those levels shows weakness at that level. Money flow is low and turning down ahead of price. Ready to move in as it continues lower. A move to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 114.916K Avg Volume: 338.789K
BUY POINT: $12.98 Volume=350K Target=$11.22 Stop=$13.92
POSITION: QFF UC - Sept. $15p (-63 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/afsi.html
Play Date: 07/18/2008
DD (DuPont--$43.81; -0.36; optionable): chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dd.html
EARNINGS: 7-22-08
STATUS: Put. DD slipped lower to the 18 day EMA on the Friday low (43.60) and bounced back modestly. Still ready to sell off as money flow is diving lower ahead of price. To recap: Formed a shallow head and shoulders through June, broke below the 200 day SMA (46.51) and failed the test. After a hard drop into July DD was so oversold it had to bounce, and when the market started so did DD. Three steps higher Wednesday to Friday and it was at the 50 day EMA (44.87). The pattern is basically wrecked and this straight up relief bounce from the selling sets up DD for more downside. Looking to move in as it turns back down. A move to the target lands a 52%ish gain.
Volume: 6.531M Avg Volume: 6.896M
BUY POINT: $44.34 Volume=10M Target=$41.15 Stop=$44.88
POSITION: DD TI - Aug. $45p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dd.html
Play Date: 07/24/2008
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30 EFT)--$113.17; -0.43; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Put. Slipped lower Friday but no volume, bouncing up and down around the buy point all session and closing just below it. Looking for further selling this coming week and ready to move in as it does. To recap: After the rebound from the downtrend, DIA is turning back down, failing at the January 2008 lows and turning over once more. It closed below the 10 day EMA (114.04), turning back from resistance and breaking near support. Looking to ride it lower for another test down toward 110 and perhaps even lower this time. A move to our initial target lands a 36%ish gain.
Volume: 19.458M Avg Volume: 17.936M
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move lower (orig. $113.28) Volume=25M Target=$110.05 Stop=$114.41
POSITION: DIA UJ - Sept. $114p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dia.html
Play Date: 07/24/2008
NLC (Nalco Holding Co.--$20.79; -0.11; optionable): Synthetic chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nlc.html
EARNINGS: 7-29-08 after the close
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Sold off Thursday and then again Friday, but NLC reversed sharply off the low for a modest loss on rising, average volume. Still in deep, still looking for a further nasty selloff. To recap: NLC peaked in early June then gapped lower, bounced to form the right side of a 7 week head and shoulders pattern. Broke sharply lower into early July, held at 20 and worked laterally, then bounced in the market bounce. Made it up to the 50 day EMA (22.15) but then rolled over Thursday. Volume did not explode higher, but it was an ugly break lower. Money flow is bad and heading lower. Looking for NLC to follow it. A ride down to the target lands a 40+%ish gain.
Volume: 1.043M Avg Volume: 1.019M
BUY POINT: $20.77 Volume=1M Target=$18.91 Stop=$21.52
POSITION: NLC UX - Sept. $22.50p (-57 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nlc.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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