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1) MARKET SUMMARY
Market slides into weekend quietly, but action is positive.
- Flat lining into the weekend.
- Manufacturing is on fire.
- Market avoids selloff, posts a modestly constructive session to cap a positive week.
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2) Stock Splits Playing stock splits can be very profitable, but it takes know-how. Our stock split service focuses on three main types of plays: 1) pre-announcement (where we forecast an upcoming split prior to the company making the announcement); 2) pre-split (these plays are made in the days leading up to the actual split day); and 3) post-split plays (plays made after the actual stock split where the stock is showing continued or renewed strength). We play pre-split plays as short-term plays. We get in when the technical indicators show us things look right, grab as much as we can, and get out, always being conscious of resistance and support. These stocks are highly volatile at this time, and can turn on you quickly. Don't let good profits disappear. Watch for turns, especially when a stock trades in a wide range and finishes off its high. That is a sign these stocks often give you that they are running out of steam. We usually get out and ask questions later. We can always get back in. We like to play in the money calls, preferably two strike prices in the money as this usually gives us a greater delta (the percent an option will mover versus the stock's movement). We prefer deltas of 75 or better. This means if the stock moves 1 point, the option should move three-fourths of that point. That means up or down. Remember, wait to see the stock start to move up. Don't just blindly make a play and don't try to guess tops and bottoms. We can look at indicators to give us a clue as to what will happen, but we need the stock to confirm it for us. Here's a pre-split play to watch and our current analysis.
NOC (Northrop Grumman--$103.13; -0.87; optionable): Aerospace/defense. Splits 2:1 on 6-22-04.
Company Profile
STATUS: Cup. Nice 14 week cup base has formed roughly over the 50 day EMA (99.80), holding up well as the market came under pressure. It has rallied up to the prior high near 104 on mostly above average volume. Positive 3 to 2 accumulation (3 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) in the base and money flow running higher ahead of price. It hit 104 Thursday then backed off some Friday. May take a few more days to ease laterally before making the move. Looks solid and we want to see strong volume as it moves through the buy point.
Volume: 715.9K Avg Volume: 786.454K
BUY POINT: $104.12 Volume=1M Target=$112.25 Stop=$101.32
POSITION: NOC HA - Aug. $105c (42 delta).
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