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1) MARKET SUMMARY
Stocks not ready to move higher.
- Jobs report disappoints and the market cannot get over it.
- Expanding national manufacturing sector is great news, but no match for the jobs report.
- Buyers refuse to commit after overall good economic news, indicating an important test of the trading range to come.
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2) Stock Splits Playing stock splits can be very profitable, but it takes know-how. Our stock split service focuses on three main types of plays: 1) pre-announcement (where we forecast an upcoming split prior to the company making the announcement); 2) pre-split (these plays are made in the days leading up to the actual split day); and 3) post-split plays (plays made after the actual stock split where the stock is showing continued or renewed strength). We play pre-split plays as short-term plays. We get in when the technical indicators show us things look right, grab as much as we can, and get out, always being conscious of resistance and support. These stocks are highly volatile at this time, and can turn on you quickly. Don't let good profits disappear. Watch for turns, especially when a stock trades in a wide range and finishes off its high. That is a sign these stocks often give you that they are running out of steam. We usually get out and ask questions later. We can always get back in. We like to play in the money calls, preferably two strike prices in the money as this usually gives us a greater delta (the percent an option will mover versus the stock's movement). We prefer deltas of 75 or better. This means if the stock moves 1 point, the option should move three-fourths of that point. That means up or down. Remember, wait to see the stock start to move up. Don't just blindly make a play and don't try to guess tops and bottoms. We can look at indicators to give us a clue as to what will happen, but we need the stock to confirm it for us. Here's a pre-split play to watch and our current analysis.
EBAY (Ebay--$105.28; -2.02; optionable): Online auctions. Splits 2:1 on 8-28-03.
Company Profile
STATUS: Testing the 50 day MVA. One of our pre-announcement plays that has made us a lot of money, EBAY now shifts into the pre-split phase. It is a leading stock that has doubled since the October bottom. On that run it has made three 50 day MVA tests, this being the fourth one. This move started after earnings. Strong stocks that are going to continue their moves will find support at the 50 day MVA (105.59) as institutions step in to support it. While we are still waiting to see if EBAY does hold up at the 50 day, we want to be ready for a strong volume jump off of that level for additional positions.
Volume: 7.811M Avg Volume: 6.559M
BUY POINT: $107.05 Volume=9M Target=$120 Stop=$104
POSITION: QXB JA - Oct. $105c (54 delta) &/or Stock.
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