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Free Weekend Newsletter for September 9, 2001
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Table Of Contents 1) MARKET SUMMARY 2) PRE-SPLIT PLAY 3) TECHNICAL PLAY 4) COVERED CALL PLAY 5) IPOs |
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Free Stock Split Email Notices Investing Q & As Glossary
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1) MARKET SUMMARY
Unemployment numbers finally catch up with the layoffs.
- Employment (or is that unemployment?) report sacks S&P and Dow.
- Overall economic reports for the week lean toward the positive despite the employment report.
- S&P at the low, Dow falling fast, but Nasdaq looks somewhat washed out.
- Nasdaq and SOX fight the downdraft, avoiding a final washout as sentiment indicators move closer.
- Subscriber Questions.
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2) Stock Splits Be sure to read our Stock Splits Manual. Playing stock splits can be very profitable, but it takes know-how. Our stock split service focuses on three main types of plays: 1) pre-announcement (where we forecast an upcoming split prior to the company making the announcement); 2) pre-split (these plays are made in the days leading up to the actual split day); and 3) post-split plays (plays made after the actual stock split where the stock is showing continued or renewed strength). We play pre-split plays as short-term plays. We get in when the technical indicators show us things look right, grab as much as we can, and get out, always being conscious of resistance and support. These stocks are highly volatile at this time, and can turn on you quickly. Don’t let good profits disappear. Watch for turns, especially when a stock trades in a wide range and finishes off its high. That is a sign these stocks often give you that they are running out of steam. We usually get out and ask questions later. We can always get back in. We like to play in the money calls, preferably two strike prices in the money as this usually gives us a greater delta (the percent an option will mover versus the stock’s movement). We prefer deltas of 75 or better. This means if the stock moves 1 point, the option should move three-fourths of that point. That means up or down. Remember, wait to see the stock start to move up. Don't just blindly make a play and don’t try to guess tops and bottoms. We can look at indicators to give us a clue as to what will happen, but we need the stock to confirm it for us. Here's a pre-split play to watch and our current analysis.
SFD (Smithfield Foods; $45.85, -0.41; optionable). Food and Beverage. Splits 2:1, effective September 17.
Company Profile
STATUS: Broke out of a lengthy cup (dating back to mid ’99), in late March 2001, and after a brief breakout test, pulled up to 45.20 in early August. From there, the stock dipped back into a saucer over the short-term MVAs, setting up a nice breakout move Wednesday on solid volume. The stock immediately pulled into a lower volume test over the 10 day MVA (45.03), with volume much lower than on the breakout (Friday volume 252,100, average 240,300). We are looking for support to hold, and set up a pre-split run. Relative strength and money flow are excellent. Target: 52.
PLAY: After holding support at the 45 level, a move to 47.13 on above average volume. Stop: 44.75.
POSITIONS: Stock and/or October $45 calls to buy (SFD JI).
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3) Technical Play
KO (Coca-Cola Company--$49.73; +0.22, optionable) Food & Beverage.
Company Profile
STATUS: Broke out of a 3-month double bottom base (that is part of a larger cup begun in mid-February) in late August. KO tested the breakout and has made another surge, pulling up to tap the 200 day MVA (50.53), and now has once again fallen to support at the 10 day (49.08). Friday the stock gapped down to that level, but pushed back up to 50 before pulling back to show a small gain on the day, on increased, above average volume of 6 million (average 4.19 million). Good price/volume action overall, and we will see if the stock can make another strong surge from here to take it over the 200 day, or if it will rest a bit and form a more stable, handle-type consolidation over the 10 day. Relative strength has broken out, and KO shows great money flow and buying. Target on a move over the 200 day: 58.
BUY POINT: Either from here, or after forming a handle over the 10 day, a move to 50.83 on continued strong volume. Stop: 48.
POSITIONS: Stock and/or October $45 calls to buy (KO JI).
Click here for more information on our Technical Traders Report! | |
4) Covered Call Play
CTX - Centex Corp. is currently trading at $40.10. The October $40 Calls (CTXJH) are trading at $3.10. That provides a return of about 8% if CTX is above $40 on expiration Friday in October.
Company Profile
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5) IPOs
As the IPO market stretches to wake from its annual summer hiatus, one sector stands out from the pack. Healthcare companies started off the year slowly but the sector's vital signs improved this summer to lead all other areas of IPOs. In July four companies from the sector completed IPOs, as many as in all six of the previous months. More than just a blip on the radar, healthcare filings picked up significantly as well. Ten of the 26 IPOs filed so far this quarter have been healthcare companies. That marks a sharp increase from the same period last year where just one of the 112 deals priced was a healthcare companies. The surge in filings shows that these companies believe their window of opportunity will remain open for at least a few more months, if not longer.
(This IPO story is continued on our website in the IPO Forum.)
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