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Free Weekend Newsletter for October 14, 2001

Table Of Contents

1) MARKET SUMMARY

2) PRE-SPLIT PLAY

3) TECHNICAL PLAY

4) COVERED CALL PLAY

5) IPOs



Free Stock Split Email Notices       Investing Q & As       Glossary

1) MARKET SUMMARY

Market tested some on Friday, but buyers come back in.

- Indexes make a comeback once again after poor retail sales numbers and another anthrax scare.
- Lower volume as indexes approach their 50 day moving averages after another good rally may indicate another rest this week and the building of more patterns.
- War is escalating on both fronts and remains the greatest source of negative outside influence.
- Consumer confidence better despite nightly hounding by the sensationalists.
- Subscriber Questions.
See full story.

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2) Stock Splits

Be sure to read our Stock Splits Manual. Playing stock splits can be very profitable, but it takes know-how.

Our stock split service focuses on three main types of plays:

1) pre-announcement (where we forecast an upcoming split prior to the company making the announcement); 2) pre-split (these plays are made in the days leading up to the actual split day); and 3) post-split plays (plays made after the actual stock split where the stock is showing continued or renewed strength).

We play pre-split plays as short-term plays. We get in when the technical indicators show us things look right, grab as much as we can, and get out, always being conscious of resistance and support. These stocks are highly volatile at this time, and can turn on you quickly. Don’t let good profits disappear. Watch for turns, especially when a stock trades in a wide range and finishes off its high. That is a sign these stocks often give you that they are running out of steam. We usually get out and ask questions later. We can always get back in. We like to play in the money calls, preferably two strike prices in the money as this usually gives us a greater delta (the percent an option will mover versus the stock’s movement). We prefer deltas of 75 or better. This means if the stock moves 1 point, the option should move three-fourths of that point. That means up or down.

Remember, wait to see the stock start to move up. Don't just blindly make a play and don’t try to guess tops and bottoms. We can look at indicators to give us a clue as to what will happen, but we need the stock to confirm it for us. Here's a pre-split play to watch and our current analysis.

Chart by StockCharts.com
ADVP (AdvancePCS--$74.11; +1.00; optionable): Health services. Announced a 2:1 stock split, effective date TBA.
Company Profile
STATUS: ADVP broke from a cup with handle in August, and now has formed another one with the help of a steep drop after the attack. It is in the handle phase, but the handle is wedging higher slightly; we prefer the handle to wedge lower as measured by the intraday lows in order to shake out the last sellers. A quick and deep pattern that may give a strong move up, but we have to be careful that it does not reverse on us when it does. One of the better performers in the market thee past several months. The stock has pulled back and is currently holding over its short-term MVA’s (10 & 18 day at 72.50 and 71.53, respectively). Friday it moved back up off of the 10 day, but volume dipped way back to 641,500 (average 1 million). This weak movement up the trendline is not the strongest action, and a bit of a pullback that continues to hold support might be better to set up a breakout move. We will see if it can do it. Targeting 90 on that run.
BUY POINT: Breakout: 76.59 on volume of 1.5 million or better. Stop: 72. From here: After a lower-volume test of the 18 day MVA, a run back over 74 on above average volume. Stop: 70.
POSITION: Stock and/or December $70 calls to buy (QVD LN).

Click here for more information on our Stock Split Report!

Chart by StockCharts.com
3) Technical Play

BDAL BDAL (Bruker Daltonics--$20.49; +2.16; no options): Scientific & Tech Instruments
Company Profile
STATUS: Making a breakout move from a 5-month cup with handle. Volume was up strongly and sharply to 2.3 million (avg. 108,318), pushing the stock up close to the buy point. Much of the pattern is below the 200 day MVA (above which BDAL broke last week on a strong gap up), but this is a nice move in a good pattern, and we like the sector as well. Huge money flow and strong buying. Target: 25
BUY POINT: 20.87 on continued strong volume (minimum breakout volume is 162,000). Stop: 19.20. A buy on breakout up to 21.91.
POSITION: Stock.

Click here for more information on our Technical Traders Report!

Chart by StockCharts.com
4) Covered Call Play

MSCC - Microsemi Corp. is currently trading at $35.49. The November $35 Calls (QMSKG) are trading at $4.10. That provides a return of about 12% if MSCC is above $35 on expiration Friday in November.
Company Profile

Click here for more information on our Covered Call, Credit Spread and Leaps Service!


5) IPOs

German telecoms giant Deutsche Telekom AG (DTEGn.DE) said on Friday it planned to issue a two billion euros ($1.81 billion) asset-backed bond by the end of the year and that it expected it to receive a AAA rating.

Telekom's Chief Financial Officer Karl-Gerhard Eick and Treasurer Gerhard Mischke told reporters the transaction -- the company's first foray into the euro-denominated asset-backed market -- said the transaction would be securitised by telephone bills in Germany.

(This IPO story is continued on our website in the IPO Forum.)

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The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinions of Online Investment Services, LP., or Split Ventures, Ltd. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on the related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolios of writers for this issue may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on the related web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. No one asscociated herewith receives compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this newsletter or on the related websites.
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