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1) MARKET SUMMARY
Fourth up week ends with the start of a breakout.
- Working toward a very important breakout as a confluence of events is changing the landscape.
- Economic reports show little life, but again there are some important features.
- The indexes are still giving mixed signals but the scales are tipping again to the upside.
- Team Trades.
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2) Stock Splits Playing stock splits can be very profitable, but it takes know-how. Our stock split service focuses on three main types of plays: 1) pre-announcement (where we forecast an upcoming split prior to the company making the announcement); 2) pre-split (these plays are made in the days leading up to the actual split day); and 3) post-split plays (plays made after the actual stock split where the stock is showing continued or renewed strength). For post-splits, we can play them as we would pre-splits (very short term), but we prefer to stretch our horizons, playing the trend. When playing options, we look further out, 2 or more months at least. We let the trend carry us along if there is one, but we will also take profits if the technical pattern degenerates, e.g., breaks a trendline. The main difference between post-splits and pre-splits plays is that we really have to like the pattern. Pre-splits can run right before their splits even with poor technical indicators. For post-splits, we are looking at the stocks from more of a longer term "would I buy this stock at this juncture?" position. Now there are times when a hot stock splits and investors pile in to get in while the stock is 'cheaper.' We play those, but with more of a short-term, pre-splits mentality in that we will be ready to get out fast if the momentum fades. Remember, everything we do has to pass muster with the market that day ... don't fight the market on these plays. Here's a post-split play to watch and our current analysis.
COH (Coach--$31.4; +1.65; optionable): Handbags, etc.
Company Profile
STATUS: Testing the breakout. This is the move we were looking for as COH tested the breakout, held the 18 day MVA on the test, and then started back up on sharply higher, above average volume. This is a picture perfect test and recovery, and a good point to enter into new positions.
Volume: 1.176M Avg Volume: 1.016M
BUY POINT: New positions: 31.55 (orig. $30.25). Volume=1.5M Target=$36.35 Stop=$29.85
POSITION: COH BY - Feb. $27.50c (65 delta) and/or Stock.
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