A Day of Rest as Indices Bumped Next Resistance
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Weekend Newsletter for
June 30, 2013
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Table Of Contents 1) MARKET SUMMARY 2) STOCK SPLIT PLAY 3) TECHNICAL PLAY 4) COVERED CALL PLAY
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1) MARKET SUMMARY > >From “The Daily” by Jon Johnson at InvestmentHouse.com
After three days the market takes a pause at resistance.
– Even more Fed-speak, taper appears clearer as market ponders whether the Fed still has its back.
– A day of rest as expected as indices bump next resistance, first test in the recovery attempt.
– China up to end the week, trying to mask growing bad loan and banking problems.
– Chicago PMI hangs onto expansion but posts a precipitous drop from a likely outrider month.
– Michigan Sentiment June Final jumps expectations as hope in the US still springs eternal.
– Important week for the market is highlighted by Independence Day holiday on Thursday and Jobs report Friday.
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Market Summary (continued)
Pretty much as expected. After three days of a solid rebound the stock indices started negative, but it took a morning fade in futures from positive in order for the rally to stall. Futures were up, looking pretty good as the rest of the world was not imploding. China actually rebounded 1.7%, a mere pittance given the precipitous decline the prior week. A bit of a bounce a la the US markets? Perhaps, but the new story from China are the bad loans that are pushing yield spreads wider and wider, no small issue for China’s financial situation. If you don’t think so, recall a little bad loan issue in the US back in 2007 and 2008?
Then there was the negative news. Earnings were not good. BBRY bombed results, missing expected unit sales by 800K. NKE beat the bottom line but suffered just in line top line sales revenues. BBRY was crushed; NKE enjoyed a nice gain after an early hammering on the results.
Funny thing. Earnings, the lifeblood of the stock market, were not the real story on the day. Q2 wrapped on Friday and earnings will be flowing big time in a couple of weeks in a quarter that is hoped to be over 3% GDP-wise.
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Here’s a trade from “The Daily” and insights into our trading strategy:
Chart by http://www.stockcharts.com”>StockCharts.com
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http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=wwww”>Company Profile
We noticed internet stocks were outperforming the market in May, and we picked up a position early that month as it tested a breakout from a February to May base. We always look for more opportunities on a winning leader, and in late May WWWW was setting up again, coming back to test the 20 day EMA.
We put it on the report and the next session WWWW continued the break higher off the 20 day. We moved in with some stocks at $21.10 and some September $20 strike call options for $2.50.
WWWW moved higher but it was still in the process of consolidating that strong run to mid-May. It continued to move laterally into early June, but then broke higher. Indeed, it really caught some air last week, breaking to a new high Tuesday, and rallying to our initial target by Thursday. The stock surged Thursday but then started to backtrack so we decided to bank part of the gain, selling some stock for $25.01 and an 18.5% gain and also selling some options for $5.20, a nice 108% advance. Of course Friday WWWW advanced again, but we had stuck to our plan. In any event, we left half the position on the table to take advantage of any further move.
You can find the leaders and make money off of them. The trick is to have the guts to commit more money to a winner at a higher price. If it is working well, however, that can make you excellent returns as you focus funds on winners.
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2) STOCK SPLIT PLAY Playing stock splits can be very profitable, but it takes know-how. Our stock split service focuses on three main types of plays: 1) pre-announcement (where we forecast an upcoming split prior to the company making the announcement); 2) pre-split (these plays are made in the days leading up to the actual split day); and 3) post-split plays (plays made after the actual stock split where the stock is showing continued or renewed strength).
For post-splits, we can play them as we would pre-splits (very short term), but we prefer to stretch our horizons, playing the trend. When playing options, we look further out, 2 or more months at least. We let the trend carry us along if there is one, but we will also take profits if the technical pattern degenerates, e.g., breaks a trendline. The main difference between post-splits and pre-splits plays is that we really have to like the pattern. Pre-splits can run right before their splits even with poor technical indicators. For post-splits, we are looking at the stocks from more of a longer term “would I buy this stock at this juncture?” position. Now there are times when a hot stock splits and investors pile in to get in while the stock is ‘cheaper.’ We play those, but with more of a short-term, pre-splits mentality in that we will be ready to get out fast if the momentum fades.
Remember, everything we do has to pass muster with the market that day … don’t fight the market on these plays.
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Here’s a post-split play and our current analysis.
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http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=kkd”>Company Profile
After Hours: $17.45
EARNINGS: 08/19/2013
STATUS: Flag. Held the 10 day EMA to close out the week, leaving KKD at a higher low and in great position to make the new break higher.
To recap: KKD blasted higher in late May on earnings. When you see those things on the promo clips getting glazed, it is hard not to go out and raid the nearest store. With this action, perhaps KKD will make us some money to buy doughnuts? Something else? A 4 week trading range ensued the breakout and then a quick test through Monday and a reversal. Nice bounce underway, picking up volume Wednesday. If it continues and breaks through the recent highs we will step in.
http://investmenthouse2.com/cntdir.asp?name=KKD”>CHART VIDEO
Volume: 2.46M Avg Volume: 1.423M
BUY POINT: $18.02 Volume=1.8M Target=$20.36 Stop=$17.21
POSITION: KKD 13K18.00 – Nov. 18c (62 delta) &/or Stock
Learn more about our Stock Split Report and how we have made gains of 321% with our powerful stock split plays!
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3) TECHNICAL PLAYhttp://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=bont”>Company Profile
After Hours: $18.05
EARNINGS: 08/22/2013
STATUS: Bear flag A good run from February to early June looks to have met its match. A nice test off the high broke sharply lower just over a week, back, falling through the 50 day EMA. Last week BONT moved back upside to the 50 day EMA, then started to fade Friday, fading back from the 50 day EMA. Looking for a break lower that sticks and we move in for a fade to support from the January, March, and April peaks. That move lands an 85% gain on the August and 50% on the October puts.
http://investmenthouse2.com/cntdir.asp?name=BONT”>CHART VIDEO
Volume: 563.69K Avg Volume: 220.056K
BUY POINT: $17.92 Volume=325K Target=$13.91 Stop=$18.89
POSITION: BONT 13V18.00 – Oct. 18p (-42 delta) or BONT 13T18.00 – Aug. 18p (-45 delta
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4) COVERED CALL PLAYhttp://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=len”>Company Profile
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The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinions of Online Investment Services, LP., or Split Ventures, Ltd. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on the related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolios of writers for this issue may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on the related web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. No one associated herewith receives compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this newsletter or on the related websites.This email was sent to ~~EMAIL~~.
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