Market Survives Serious Oil Issues
http://investmenthouse2.com/pixcnt.asp?id=512″>
INVESTMENT HOUSE.COMTM
Informing Investors Around The World
Read In All 50 States And Over 100 Countries
Weekend Newsletter for
February 26, 2006
Table Of Contents 1) MARKET SUMMARY 2) PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAY 3) TECHNICAL PLAY 4) COVERED CALL PLAY
http://ichart.yahoo.com/v?s=^ixic”> http://ichart.yahoo.com/v?s=^dji”>
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1splitnotification.htm”>Stock Split Notices http://www.investmenthouse.com/1questions.htm”>Investing Q & As http://www.investmenthouse.com/1glossary.htm”>Glossary
1) MARKET SUMMARY > >From “The Daily” at InvestmentHouse.com
Market overcomes serious issues, posts modest gains, holds status quo again.
– Market survives serious oil issues, lives to fight another day.
– Friday Fed comments are quite alarming.
– Durable goods dive like a falling airliner.
– Huge week of economic data as market tries to pull together and resume the upside.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cgibin/banners4/ads.pl?banner=NonSSI;page=388″ target=”_blank”>
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cgibin/banners4/ads.pl?page=388″ border=”0″>
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cgibin/banners8/ads.pl?banner=NonSSI;page=389″ target=”_blank”>http://www.investmenthouse.com/cgibin/banners8/ads.pl?page=389″ width=”336″ height=”280″ border=1 alt=””>
Market Summary (continued)
Once again oil was setting up for a more serious decline, but once again outside forces are working to support prices and send them higher. Iran has been on the burner and the Nigerian ‘total war’ against foreign oil interests helped start prices higher. Friday bad news was gushing like a blowout well. Nigerian rebels released pictures of the hostages. Venezuela is denying landing rights to American Airlines as retaliation for something that happened back in 1998. And the big one, a double car bomb attack against Saudi Arabia’s largest oil facility, the one that handles two-thirds of all Saudi production. The attack was thwarted, but it was ballsy, a straight on attempt.
This is what we wrote about in 2005 as the major terrorist threat. While many would say the US is still pretty wide open for an attack, we have hardened our targets and they are not as easy picking now that it is a national issue. The terrorists want to take down our economic might because they know that our strength, our ability to defeat anyone, lies with our incredible economic engine that develops new technologies and also the cash to finance our policies and goals. Taking out the twin towers was an attempt to cripple our financial nerve center. It failed; the NYSE was up and running within a week, an incredible accomplishment and a testament to Dick Grasso, something those claiming he made too much money at the exchange should consider.
If you cannot get the US economy to fall after demolishing its nerve center, what do you do? You go after what fuels the engine, and that is oil. The place to go? The Middle East and one of the US’ biggest oil allies. After a new appearance by OBL where he threatened more attacks against the US, AQ hits Saudi production facilities. A bit of a head fake, a bit of deception, both classic AQ. Fortunately it did not succeed or oil would have shot toward $90/bbl. It changes the game, however, because now the terrorists have finally shown they are willing to destroy what they consider their resources in order to accomplish their goals. That should not be that surprising. After all they are willing to kill the very people throughout the world they claim to fight for.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1weekendmarketsummary.htm”>Read “The Daily” Entire Weekend Summary
Here’s a trade from “The Daily” and insights into our trading strategy:
Chart by http://www.stockcharts.com”>StockCharts.com
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cc/chrssm.gif” width=”360″ height=”208″ border=”1″>
http://investmenthouse.com/indexq.php?smbl=
CHRS”>
CHRS (Charming Shoppes–$13.65; -0.2; optionable): Apparel stores.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=chrs”>Company Profile
After Hours: $13.67
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A charming little 11 week base that formed using the 50 day EMA (12.91) as support. Excellent 4 to 0 accumulation (4 up price weeks on rising volume to 0 down price weeks on rising volume) shows all buying as CHRS consolidates and sets up the breakout to an 11 year high. This base follows the breakout from a 4.5 month base in November; a solid, steady performer. Strong money flow and relative strength ready to make the breakout with the stock. Strong pattern and solid fundamentals.
Volume: 546.16K Avg Volume: 1.063M
BUY POINT: $14.11 Volume=1.6M Target=$16.95 Stop=$13.42
POSITION: QSR GV – July $12.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1daily1.htm”>Learn more about “The Daily” with Stock Picks! – Issued 5 Times Per Week
2) STOCK SPLITS Playing stock splits can be very profitable, but it takes know-how. Our stock split service focuses on three main types of plays: 1) pre-announcement: where we forecast an upcoming split prior to the company making the announcement;2) pre-split: these plays are made in the days leading up to the actual split day; and 3) post-split plays: plays made after the actual stock split where the stock is showing continued or renewed strength.
Pre-announcements are where we put in the long hours of research, chase down leads and rumors, and pump our contacts for information in order to determine if a split is in the works and to pinpoint an announcement date. Pinpointing the date is our primary goal as this allows us many more options in how we play a split. As we primarily focus on leadership stocks in good technical patterns, if we see the stock make the breakout we will get in earlier and ride the wave of speculation up to or through the announcement. Pinpointing a date and time also allows us to open positions immediately prior to an announcement, minimizing our exposure time to the market whims. We employ this strategy regularly in a number of situations. When we have ridden a stock for a few days, a week, a few weeks, up to the forecast announcement, we often have a lot of profit built in. After all, these are leaders and they attract attention moving into earnings, shareholder meetings, etc. We often sell some positions (all or a partial), lock in the profit, and take positions with higher strike call options near the current stock price at a cheaper cost if the stock is not overextended, i.e., has done all of its running before the forecast announcement. This way we bank some profit from the early run, and take some of that profit to play the actual split. Even if the board pulls a fast one on us and does not announce, we still have profit in the bank. This method also works well when the market is choppy, and we do not want to hold positions long. We can often buy right before the announcement and then sell when we feel the split announcement has run its course and the stock starts to pull back. Narrowing the predicted date and time of the split gives us these options.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1stocksplits1.htm” target=”_top”>http://www.investmenthouse.com/images2/cnbc.gif” width=”39″ height=”31″ border=”0″ alt=”CNBC Interview”>
Listen to Stock Split Report Editor Jon Johnson’sstock split interview on CNBC-TV [ http://www.investmenthouse2.com/cntdir.asp?name=JonJohnson-B” target=”_new”>Broadband | http://www.investmenthouse2.com/cntdir.asp?name=JonJohnson-D” target=”_new”>Dial-up ]
Here’s a pre-announcement play to watch and our current analysis.
Chart by http://www.stockcharts.com”>StockCharts.com
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cc/rjfsm.gif” width=”360″ height=”208″ border=”1″>
http://investmenthouse.com/indexq.php?smbl=
RJF”>
RFJ (Raymond James Financial, Inc.)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=rfj”>Company Profile
One of the keys to the current market is finding winning sectors. Even with a good sector, however, you still have to find the right stocks. Financials have outperformed the market in general the past two months, but many are still lagging. The great thing about split plays is that we are always looking at the leaders, picking them up when they give us an entry point before the next move higher. RJF gave us such an entry point in late January as it worked laterally, testing the breakout from a bigger base in November. When we saw the stock break higher out of that range on solid volume on 1-24 that was our entry point for the pre-announcement split play. We like to play stocks we anticipate will announce a stock split and move into them when they give us that good entry point. That is what RJF was showing us.
We moved in with some stock positions at $40.15 and some option positions with May $40 strike call options at $2.80. RJF made another solid move and then faded back to the 10 day EMA where it found support and rallied again. A strong stock will use the 10 day EMA as support for its pullbacks as it runs higher. RJF continued this action through February, and on Wednesday (February 22) it announced its split and posted a solid gain, hitting our initial target at 46.25. We took some 15% stock gain and sold some of the call options for $6.30, a sweet 125% gain. These were better than average options that we found on this one; they had a good delta and volatility that really pumped up the value as the stock moved higher. We saw no reason to take all of the money off the table as RJF continues in its strong uptrend up the 10 day EMA
Learn more about our Stock Split Report and how we have made gains of 321% with our powerful stock split plays!
http://www.investmenthouse.com/a/StockSplitReport.html”>Details Here.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cgibin/banners6/ads.pl?banner=NonSSI;page=388″ target=”_blank”>
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cgibin/banners6/ads.pl?page=388″ border=”0″>
Chart by http://www.stockcharts.com”>StockCharts.com
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cc/babysm.gif” width=”360″ height=”208″ border=”1″>
3) TECHNICAL PLAYhttp://investmenthouse.com/indexq.php?smbl=
BABY”>
BABY (Natus Medical–$18.95; +0.04; optionable): Medical appliances.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=baby”>Company Profile
After Hours: $19
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume has surged the past week as BABY butts up against the breakout from a 16 week base formed above the 50 day EMA (17.75). Made a higher low at that 50 day support here in February, setting up the breakout to a new all-time high. Outstanding 6 to 2 accumulation in the base (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows all buying, setting up the move to come. Super technical pattern, super growth in its sales and earnings.
Volume: 208.611K Avg Volume: 142.003K
BUY POINT: $19.25 Volume=213K Target=$23.12 Stop=$18.21
POSITION: QBU GW – July $17.50c (71 delta) &/or Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1tech1.htm”>Learn more about our Technical Traders Report – Issued 5 Times Per Week Chart by http://www.stockcharts.com”>StockCharts.com
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cc/susm.gif” width=”360″ height=”208″ border=”1″>
4) COVERED CALL PLAYhttp://investmenthouse.com/indexq.php?smbl=
SU”>
SU – Suncor Energy Inc. is currently trading at $76.87. The April $75 Calls (SUDO) are trading at $5.90. That provides a return of about 6% if SU is above $75 on expiration Friday in April.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=su”>Company Profile
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1coveredcalls1.htm”>Learn more about our Covered Call Tables – 8 Tables Updated 5 Times Per Week
* * * SCOTTRADE * * *
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cgibin/banners3/ads.pl?banner=NonSSI;page=388″ target=”_blank”>
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cgibin/banners3/ads.pl?page=388″ border=”0″>
PREMIUM SERVICES
http://www.investmenthouse.com/a/IHAlertswknd.htm” target=”_top”>IH Alerts: InvestmentHouse.com’s Best of The Best Plays!
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1stocksplits1.htm” target=”_top”>Stock Split Report: Forbes.com Best of the Web http://www.investmenthouse.com/1coveredcalls1.htm”>Covered Calls: 8 Tables with nightly updates – energize your portfolio! http://www.investmenthouse.com/1tech1.htm”>Tech Traders: Breakouts, wedges, etc…focusing on stocks ready to move now! http://www.investmenthouse.com/1daily1.htm”>The Daily: “The Daily” is a must read for all investors!
MARKETPLACE http://www.investmenthouse.com/1ibd.htm”>Investor’s Business Daily: Complimentary subscription delivered to your doorstep!
http://www.investmenthouse2.com/cntdir.asp?name=alexa”>Block All Pop-Ups! Complimentary tool from Amazon.com.
http://www.adtrader.com/ads/adlink.asp?SN=1227>http://www.adtrader.com/ads/adserve.asp?SN=1227&PN=10018&Desc=btmpg”>
The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinions of Online Investment Services, LP., or Split Ventures, Ltd. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on the related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolios of writers for this issue may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on the related web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. No one associated herewith receives compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this newsletter or on the related websites.
http://www.adtrader.com/ads/adlink.asp?SN=4032>http://www.adtrader.com/ads/adserve.asp?SN=4032&PN=2&Desc=fwknd”>
http://www.spamarrest.com/affl?701702″>http://img.spamarrest.com/img/affiliate/SA_orange_40x40.gif?701702″ height=”40″ width=”40″ border=”0″>
http://www.investmenthouse.com/images/copyright3b.gif”>
http://www.spamarrest.com/affl?701702″>http://img.spamarrest.com/img/affiliate/SA_orange_40x40.gif?701702″ height=”40″ width=”40″ border=”0″>
