Weekend Newsletter for December 19, 2004
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Weekend Newsletter for December 19, 2004
Table Of Contents 1) MARKET SUMMARY 2) PRE-SPLIT PLAY 3) TECHNICAL PLAY 4) COVERED CALL PLAY
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/1splitnotification.htm”>Stock Split Notices http://www.investmenthouse.com/1questions.htm”>Investing Q & As http://www.investmenthouse.com/1glossary.htm”>Glossary
1) MARKET SUMMARY
Investors retreat to safety of weekend as drug stocks shake their beliefs.
– Another drug warning and investors just wanted to get to the weekend.
– Government says consumer prices remain tame as oil prices slide.
– Economic data improving into year end, brightening prospects for 2005.
– Semiconductors can’t buy a friend.
– Stocks end the week where they started, but given the events, not a bad showing.
– Short pre-holiday week, post-expiration may see trend resume, but we need to watch for the performance chasing to slow.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1weekendmarketsummary.htm”>Read Full Weekend Summaryhttp://www.investmenthouse.com/1daily1.htm”>Learn more about our Daily Newsletter with Stock Picks! – Issued 5 Times Per Week
2) Stock Splits Playing stock splits can be very profitable, but it takes know-how. Our stock split service focuses on three main types of plays: 1) pre-announcement (where we forecast an upcoming split prior to the company making the announcement); 2) pre-split (these plays are made in the days leading up to the actual split day); and 3) post-split plays (plays made after the actual stock split where the stock is showing continued or renewed strength). We play pre-split plays as short-term plays. We get in when the technical indicators show us things look right, grab as much as we can, and get out, always being conscious of resistance and support. These stocks are highly volatile at this time, and can turn on you quickly. Don’t let good profits disappear. Watch for turns, especially when a stock trades in a wide range and finishes off its high. That is a sign these stocks often give you that they are running out of steam. We usually get out and ask questions later. We can always get back in. We like to play in the money calls, preferably two strike prices in the money as this usually gives us a greater delta (the percent an option will mover versus the stock’s movement). We prefer deltas of 75 or better. This means if the stock moves 1 point, the option should move three-fourths of that point. That means up or down. Remember, wait to see the stock start to move up. Don’t just blindly make a play and don’t try to guess tops and bottoms. We can look at indicators to give us a clue as to what will happen, but we need the stock to confirm it for us. Here’s a pre-split play to watch and our current analysis.http://www.investmenthouse.com/1stocksplits1.htm” target=”_top”>http://www.investmenthouse.com/images2/cnbc.gif” width=”39″ height=”31″ border=”0″ alt=”CNBC Interview”>
Listen to Stock Split Report Editor Jon Johnson’s stock split interview on CNBC-TV![ http://www.investmenthouse2.com/cntdir.asp?name=JonJohnson-B” target=”_new”>Broadband | http://www.investmenthouse2.com/cntdir.asp?name=JonJohnson-D” target=”_new”>Dial-up ]
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http://investmenthouse.com/quote/stkquote.php3?smbl=
JOYG”>
JOYG (Joy Global–$40.65; -0.31; optionable): Farm construction machinery. Splits 3:2 on 1-24-05.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/joyg.html”>Company Profile
After Hours: $40.86
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After the big surge Thursday, JOYG took a breather Friday on lower, slightly below average volume. To recap: JOYG has rallied well after breakout out from its 8 month base in mid-September, moving up the 10 and 18 day EMA as a solid stock should. It needed a breather and came back to test and hold the 50 day EMA (37.37), again like a strong stock should. It bounced off that level last week but volume was low and below average. Volume jumped Thursday on the split announcement. Strong stocks use the 50 day EMA to regroup after a good run; a strong move off of that level sets up the next leg of the run, again up the short term MA. After that Friday breather JOYG looks ready.
Volume: 490.302K Avg Volume: 534.772K
BUY POINT: $41.25 Volume=625K Target=$48 Stop=$39.98
POSITION: JQY DH – Apr. $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1stocksplits1.htm”>Learn more about our Stock Split Report – Issued 5 Times Per Week
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3) Technical Playhttp://investmenthouse.com/quote/stkquote.php3?smbl=
GOOG”>
GOOG (Google–$180.08; +3.61; optionable): Internet search, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/goog.html”>Company Profile
After Hours: $180.02
STATUS: Pennant. GOOG is moving laterally in its first base, an 8 week job at this juncture. Volume backed off in late November and early December, showing more trade this past week as it moved off some support at 170, stepping higher in the pattern as it gets ready for the next leg. It could spend a lot more time forming a full cup base, but this volume suggests that the stock may be ready to make its next move higher. At this level we are looking at options and will let the play run as long as it will; $210 is just the initial target. Hearing some good information about a split coming.
Volume: 7.418M Avg Volume: 10.743M
BUY POINT: $181.25 Volume=12M Target=$210 Stop=$175
POSITION: GOU CP – Mar. $180c (55 delta).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1tech1.htm”>Learn more about our Technical Traders Report – Issued 5 Times Per Week Chart by http://www.stockcharts.com”>StockCharts.com
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4) Covered Call Playhttp://investmenthouse.com/quote/stkquote.php3?smbl=
TK”>
TK – Teekay Shipping Corp. is currently trading at $45.05. The January $45 Calls (TKAI) are trading at $2.60. That provides a return of about 6% if TK is above $45 on expiration Friday in January.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tk.html”>Company Profile
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1coveredcalls1.htm”>Learn more about our Covered Call Tables – 8 Tables Updated 5 Times Per Week
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The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinions of Online Investment Services, LP., or Split Ventures, Ltd. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on the related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolios of writers for this issue may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on the related web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. No one asscociated herewith receives compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this newsletter or on the related websites.
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