Weekend Newsletter for November 14, 2004
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Weekend Newsletter for November 14, 2004
Table Of Contents 1) MARKET SUMMARY 2) POST-SPLIT PLAY 3) TECHNICAL PLAY 4) COVERED CALL PLAY
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/1splitnotification.htm”>Stock Split Notices http://www.investmenthouse.com/1questions.htm”>Investing Q & As http://www.investmenthouse.com/1glossary.htm”>Glossary
1) MARKET SUMMARY
Another early rally, stronger finish as fund managers chase the bus out of the station.
– Stocks post another solid rally as volume kicks back in.
– Autos have off month but other sales surge.
– Business inventories shrink: buying or dormant production?
– European, Japanese economies post weak growth.
– SP500 blasts though the 2002 high as stocks bull ahead in holiday run.
– Market refusing to come back, but with so many new bulls we should be ready.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1weekendmarketsummary.htm”>Read Full Weekend Summaryhttp://www.investmenthouse.com/1daily1.htm”>Learn more about our Daily Newsletter with Stock Picks! – Issued 5 Times Per Week
2) Stock Splits Playing stock splits can be very profitable, but it takes know-how. Our stock split service focuses on three main types of plays: 1) pre-announcement (where we forecast an upcoming split prior to the company making the announcement); 2) pre-split (these plays are made in the days leading up to the actual split day); and 3) post-split plays (plays made after the actual stock split where the stock is showing continued or renewed strength). For post-splits, we can play them as we would pre-splits (very short term), but we prefer to stretch our horizons, playing the trend. When playing options, we look further out, 2 or more months at least. We let the trend carry us along if there is one, but we will also take profits if the technical pattern degenerates, e.g., breaks a trendline. The main difference between post-splits and pre-splits plays is that we really have to like the pattern. Pre-splits can run right before their splits even with poor technical indicators. For post-splits, we are looking at the stocks from more of a longer term “would I buy this stock at this juncture?” position. Now there are times when a hot stock splits and investors pile in to get in while the stock is ‘cheaper.’ We play those, but with more of a short-term, pre-splits mentality in that we will be ready to get out fast if the momentum fades. Remember, everything we do has to pass muster with the market that day … don’t fight the market on these plays. Here’s a post-split play to watch and our current analysis.http://www.investmenthouse.com/1stocksplits1.htm” target=”_top”>http://www.investmenthouse.com/images2/cnbc.gif” width=”39″ height=”31″ border=”0″ alt=”CNBC Interview”>
Listen to Stock Split Report Editor Jon Johnson’s stock split interview on CNBC-TV![ http://www.investmenthouse2.com/cntdir.asp?name=JonJohnson-B” target=”_new”>Broadband | http://www.investmenthouse2.com/cntdir.asp?name=JonJohnson-D” target=”_new”>Dial-up ]
Chart by http://www.stockcharts.com”>StockCharts.com
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http://investmenthouse.com/quote/stkquote.php3?smbl=
MRVL”>
MRVL (Marvell Technology–$30.80; +2.33; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html”>Company Profile
STATUS: Flat base breakout. Taking another look at MRVL. Friday volume surged as MRVL started the breakout from a 6 week flat base that formed using the 50 day EMA (27.36) as support. This short base follows a 12 week cup with handle breakout. This base on base action works out all of the sellers, clearing the way for a strong move higher. Solid 3 to 1 accumulation in the current base and excellent 4 to 0 accumulation in the prior base; obviously a lot of buyers and few sellers. Excellent money flow is running higher, and it looks as if MRVL is ready to follow it. May test back toward 30 before continuing, but we are looking at starting positions on a further move higher from here on solid trade.
Volume: 9.254M Avg Volume: 5.163M
BUY POINT: $30.88 Volume=6M Target=$36.55 Stop=$29.78
POSITION: UVM BF – Feb. $30c (63 delta) &/or Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1stocksplits1.htm”>Learn more about our Stock Split Report – Issued 5 Times Per Week
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3) Technical Playhttp://investmenthouse.com/quote/stkquote.php3?smbl=
ALVR”>
ALVR (Alvarion–$15.39; +0.53; optionable): Telecom equipment.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alvr.html”>Company Profile
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume exploded Friday as ALVR started toward the breakout move from its 8.5 month base. It hit 16 on the high and backed off to close, but it is definitely getting ready for a move. Accumulation in the base is a solid 9 to 6 (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 6 down weeks on rising volume), showing net buyers in the base and setting up the breakout. Ready to make the breakout move.
Volume: 4.59M Avg Volume: 890.776K
BUY POINT: $15.72 Volume=750K Target=$18.85 Stop=$14.62
POSITION: QBY CC – Mar. $15c (56 delta) &/or Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1tech1.htm”>Learn more about our Technical Traders Report – Issued 5 Times Per Week Chart by http://www.stockcharts.com”>StockCharts.com
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4) Covered Call Playhttp://investmenthouse.com/quote/stkquote.php3?smbl=
ADSK”>
ADSK – Autodesk Inc. is currently trading at $60.55. The December $60 Calls (ADQLL) are trading at $3.40. That provides a return of about 5% if ADSK is above $60 on expiration Friday in December.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adsk.html”>Company Profile
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1coveredcalls1.htm”>Learn more about our Covered Call Tables – 8 Tables Updated 5 Times Per Week
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The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinions of Online Investment Services, LP., or Split Ventures, Ltd. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on the related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolios of writers for this issue may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on the related web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. No one asscociated herewith receives compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this newsletter or on the related websites.
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