Weekend Newsletter for October 10, 2004
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Weekend Newsletter for October 10, 2004
Table Of Contents 1) MARKET SUMMARY 2) POST-SPLIT PLAY 3) TECHNICAL PLAY 4) COVERED CALL PLAY
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/1splitnotification.htm”>Stock Split Notices http://www.investmenthouse.com/1questions.htm”>Investing Q & As http://www.investmenthouse.com/1glossary.htm”>Glossary
1) MARKET SUMMARY
Early earnings, jobs disappointment send stocks back to drawing board.
– Weaker employment data fuels further selling.
– No upside surprises in jobs though Q1 revised significantly higher.
– Part 2: jobs for the future.
– No easy ride as stocks give back most of the recent rally.
– Subscriber Questions.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1weekendmarketsummary.htm”>Read Full Weekend Summaryhttp://www.investmenthouse.com/1daily1.htm”>Learn more about our Daily Newsletter with Stock Picks! – Issued 5 Times Per Week
2) Stock Splits Playing stock splits can be very profitable, but it takes know-how. Our stock split service focuses on three main types of plays: 1) pre-announcement (where we forecast an upcoming split prior to the company making the announcement); 2) pre-split (these plays are made in the days leading up to the actual split day); and 3) post-split plays (plays made after the actual stock split where the stock is showing continued or renewed strength). For post-splits, we can play them as we would pre-splits (very short term), but we prefer to stretch our horizons, playing the trend. When playing options, we look further out, 2 or more months at least. We let the trend carry us along if there is one, but we will also take profits if the technical pattern degenerates, e.g., breaks a trendline. The main difference between post-splits and pre-splits plays is that we really have to like the pattern. Pre-splits can run right before their splits even with poor technical indicators. For post-splits, we are looking at the stocks from more of a longer term “would I buy this stock at this juncture?” position. Now there are times when a hot stock splits and investors pile in to get in while the stock is ‘cheaper.’ We play those, but with more of a short-term, pre-splits mentality in that we will be ready to get out fast if the momentum fades. Remember, everything we do has to pass muster with the market that day … don’t fight the market on these plays. Here’s a post-split play to watch and our current analysis.http://www.investmenthouse.com/1stocksplits1.htm” target=”_top”>http://www.investmenthouse.com/images2/cnbc.gif” width=”39″ height=”31″ border=”0″ alt=”CNBC Interview”>
Listen to Stock Split Report Editor Jon Johnson’s stock split interview on CNBC-TV![ http://www.investmenthouse2.com/cntdir.asp?name=JonJohnson-B” target=”_new”>Broadband | http://www.investmenthouse2.com/cntdir.asp?name=JonJohnson-D” target=”_new”>Dial-up ]
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MSCC”>
MSCC (Microsemi–$15.04; -0.26; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mscc.html”>Company Profile
After Hours: $15.05
STATUS: Breakout test. Looks even better after the Friday trade, tapping the 10 day EMA (14.85) on the low and rebounding to show a nice tight doji on low volume. After a weeklong pullback to test the breakout a doji often signals a change in momentum. In this case that means the resumption of the breakout move. And it was quite a breakout. MSCC exploded out of an 8 month double bottom with handle base to start the month. It peaked at 16 and faded back to test the move. It held up extremely well in last week’s selling, an attribute of a leader. Accumulation in the long base is a solid 8 to 4. It has made the test of 15 and the 10 day EMA that we were looking for, and now we just need to see the volume flow back in on a continued move higher. Very nice.
Volume: 391.651K Avg Volume: 683.661K
BUY POINT: $15.75 Volume=1M Target=$19 Stop=$14.78
POSITION: QMS CC – Mar. $15c (60 delta) &/or Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1stocksplits1.htm”>Learn more about our Stock Split Report – Issued 5 Times Per Week
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3) Technical Playhttp://investmenthouse.com/quote/stkquote.php3?smbl=
CAND”>
CAND (Candies, Inc.–$4.12; -0.01; no options): Footwear.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cand.html”>Company Profile
STATUS: Breakout test. Taking another run at CAND; made us some good money earlier and we sold out too early. Now it is giving its first real entry point after the breakout. CAND exploded out of a flat base in early September and surged to 4.95 on the initial run. It is currently making its first test, easing back to the 18 day EMA (4.04) on mostly lower volume. Strong money flow and accumulation continues even as the stock makes this test. The first breakout test is one of our favorite entry points because it shows us that investors still want to move into the stock after the breakout. That typically means a lot more upside ahead.
Volume: 73.34K Avg Volume: 181.727K
BUY POINT: $4.28 Volume=275K Target=$5.25 Stop=$4.02
POSITION: – Stock (no option chain).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1tech1.htm”>Learn more about our Technical Traders Report – Issued 5 Times Per Week Chart by http://www.stockcharts.com”>StockCharts.com
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4) Covered Call Playhttp://investmenthouse.com/quote/stkquote.php3?smbl=
UCI”>
UCI – UICI is currently trading at $35.35 The November $35 Calls (UCIKG) are trading at $1.95. That provides a return of about 5% if UCI is above $35 on expiration Friday in November.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uci.html”>Company Profile
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1coveredcalls1.htm”>Learn more about our Covered Call Tables – 8 Tables Updated 5 Times Per Week
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The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinions of Online Investment Services, LP., or Split Ventures, Ltd. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on the related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolios of writers for this issue may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on the related web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. No one asscociated herewith receives compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this newsletter or on the related websites.
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