Weekend Newsletter for October 24, 2004
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Weekend Newsletter for October 24, 2004
Table Of Contents 1) MARKET SUMMARY 2) POST-SPLIT PLAY 3) TECHNICAL PLAY 4) COVERED CALL PLAY
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/1splitnotification.htm”>Stock Split Notices http://www.investmenthouse.com/1questions.htm”>Investing Q & As http://www.investmenthouse.com/1glossary.htm”>Glossary
1) MARKET SUMMARY
Solid move up, solid move down.
– Once more the market turns back, answering a good session with selling.
– Several major obstacles to a longer term market advance.
– The October surprise has emerged.
– Chinese economy slowing, but at these levels it is hard to notice.
– Dow dives to new 2004 low, SP500 in pursuit, but NASDAQ and SP600 are surprisingly solid.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1weekendmarketsummary.htm”>Read Full Weekend Summaryhttp://www.investmenthouse.com/1daily1.htm”>Learn more about our Daily Newsletter with Stock Picks! – Issued 5 Times Per Week
2) Stock Splits Playing stock splits can be very profitable, but it takes know-how. Our stock split service focuses on three main types of plays: 1) pre-announcement (where we forecast an upcoming split prior to the company making the announcement); 2) pre-split (these plays are made in the days leading up to the actual split day); and 3) post-split plays (plays made after the actual stock split where the stock is showing continued or renewed strength). For post-splits, we can play them as we would pre-splits (very short term), but we prefer to stretch our horizons, playing the trend. When playing options, we look further out, 2 or more months at least. We let the trend carry us along if there is one, but we will also take profits if the technical pattern degenerates, e.g., breaks a trendline. The main difference between post-splits and pre-splits plays is that we really have to like the pattern. Pre-splits can run right before their splits even with poor technical indicators. For post-splits, we are looking at the stocks from more of a longer term “would I buy this stock at this juncture?” position. Now there are times when a hot stock splits and investors pile in to get in while the stock is ‘cheaper.’ We play those, but with more of a short-term, pre-splits mentality in that we will be ready to get out fast if the momentum fades. Remember, everything we do has to pass muster with the market that day … don’t fight the market on these plays. Here’s a post-split play to watch and our current analysis.http://www.investmenthouse.com/1stocksplits1.htm” target=”_top”>http://www.investmenthouse.com/images2/cnbc.gif” width=”39″ height=”31″ border=”0″ alt=”CNBC Interview”>
Listen to Stock Split Report Editor Jon Johnson’s stock split interview on CNBC-TV![ http://www.investmenthouse2.com/cntdir.asp?name=JonJohnson-B” target=”_new”>Broadband | http://www.investmenthouse2.com/cntdir.asp?name=JonJohnson-D” target=”_new”>Dial-up ]
Chart by http://www.stockcharts.com”>StockCharts.com
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http://investmenthouse.com/quote/stkquote.php3?smbl=
BCR”>
BCR (C.R. Bard–$55.19; -0.80; optionable): Medical instruments.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html”>Company Profile
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. BCR blasted higher on earnings Wednesday after solid results. It eased back in the market selling Friday, but on lower volume and showing a tight doji right on top of the 50 day EMA (54.95). It is trying to make a higher low here at the 50 day as it works on a 19 week trading range between 52 and 58. Excellent 6 to 2 accumulation (6 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume) shows a lot of buyers during the base. Looking for that strong volume to resume as the stock moves off the 50 day and through the buy point. Strong money flow is still moving higher ahead of price, and we expect BCR to resume the move higher, giving us a higher low and a good entry point toward a new all-time high where there is no resistance and no disgruntled shareholders ready to dump it.
Volume: 703.5K Avg Volume: 653.892K
BUY POINT: $56.22 Volume=981K Target=$64.95 Stop=$54.88
POSITION: BCR AK – Jan. $55c (56 delta) &/or Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1stocksplits1.htm”>Learn more about our Stock Split Report – Issued 5 Times Per Week
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3) Technical Playhttp://investmenthouse.com/quote/stkquote.php3?smbl=
CNCT”>
CNCT (Connetics–$27.6; +0.27; optionable): Drugs.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnct.html”>Company Profile
STATUS: Flat base. CNCT is a market leader looking for a new all-time high. It is working in a 13 week flat pattern that is trading between 26 on the low (50 day EMA at 26.10) and 28 on the high. This pattern formed after a solid breakout from the February to July base. Accumulation in the current base is a solid 3 to 1 and it formed over the 50 day EMA, both showing the stock has strong institutional interest. Money flow is solid and relative strength is moving higher for a breakout. Thursday and Friday volume moved above average, and it looks as if CNCT is getting ready to make the breakout move.
Volume: 818.788K Avg Volume: 621.747K
BUY POINT: $28.56 Volume=750K Target=$34 Stop=$27.88
POSITION: UXU AE – Jan. $25c (77 delta) &/or Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1tech1.htm”>Learn more about our Technical Traders Report – Issued 5 Times Per Week Chart by http://www.stockcharts.com”>StockCharts.com
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4) Covered Call Playhttp://investmenthouse.com/quote/stkquote.php3?smbl=
LCAV”>
LCAV – LCA-Vision, Inc. is currently trading at $25.10. The November $25 Calls (JVQKE) are trading at $1.55. That provides a return of about 6% if LCAV is above $25 on expiration Friday in November.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lcav.html”>Company Profile
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1coveredcalls1.htm”>Learn more about our Covered Call Tables – 8 Tables Updated 5 Times Per Week
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The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinions of Online Investment Services, LP., or Split Ventures, Ltd. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on the related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolios of writers for this issue may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on the related web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. No one asscociated herewith receives compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this newsletter or on the related websites.
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