Weekend Newsletter for October 3, 2004
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Weekend Newsletter for October 3, 2004
Table Of Contents 1) MARKET SUMMARY 2) POST-SPLIT PLAY 3) TECHNICAL PLAY 4) COVERED CALL PLAY
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/1splitnotification.htm”>Stock Split Notices http://www.investmenthouse.com/1questions.htm”>Investing Q & As http://www.investmenthouse.com/1glossary.htm”>Glossary
1) MARKET SUMMARY
Strong surge starts Q4.
– Market erupts like St. Helens of old as investors rotate to stocks to start quarter.
– Then versus now: another 1980’s-like inflection point?
– National manufacturing slips but shows signs of improvement, just like the overall economy.
– Japanese business confidence hits highs as Michigan consumer sentiment ebbs slightly.
– August construction spending rises to seventh straight record.
– Volume remains strong as techs stocks power through resistance, small caps surge to all-time high.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1weekendmarketsummary.htm”>Read Full Weekend Summaryhttp://www.investmenthouse.com/1daily1.htm”>Learn more about our Daily Newsletter with Stock Picks! – Issued 5 Times Per Week
2) Stock Splits Playing stock splits can be very profitable, but it takes know-how. Our stock split service focuses on three main types of plays: 1) pre-announcement (where we forecast an upcoming split prior to the company making the announcement); 2) pre-split (these plays are made in the days leading up to the actual split day); and 3) post-split plays (plays made after the actual stock split where the stock is showing continued or renewed strength). For post-splits, we can play them as we would pre-splits (very short term), but we prefer to stretch our horizons, playing the trend. When playing options, we look further out, 2 or more months at least. We let the trend carry us along if there is one, but we will also take profits if the technical pattern degenerates, e.g., breaks a trendline. The main difference between post-splits and pre-splits plays is that we really have to like the pattern. Pre-splits can run right before their splits even with poor technical indicators. For post-splits, we are looking at the stocks from more of a longer term “would I buy this stock at this juncture?” position. Now there are times when a hot stock splits and investors pile in to get in while the stock is ‘cheaper.’ We play those, but with more of a short-term, pre-splits mentality in that we will be ready to get out fast if the momentum fades. Remember, everything we do has to pass muster with the market that day … don’t fight the market on these plays. Here’s a post-split play to watch and our current analysis.http://www.investmenthouse.com/1stocksplits1.htm” target=”_top”>http://www.investmenthouse.com/images2/cnbc.gif” width=”39″ height=”31″ border=”0″ alt=”CNBC Interview”>
Listen to Stock Split Report Editor Jon Johnson’s stock split interview on CNBC-TV![ http://www.investmenthouse2.com/cntdir.asp?name=JonJohnson-B” target=”_new”>Broadband | http://www.investmenthouse2.com/cntdir.asp?name=JonJohnson-D” target=”_new”>Dial-up ]
Chart by http://www.stockcharts.com”>StockCharts.com
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http://investmenthouse.com/quote/stkquote.php3?smbl=
MRVL”>
MRVL (Marvell Technology–$28.04; +1.91; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mrvl.html”>Company Profile
After Hours: $28
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Explosive breakout move Friday as MRVL surged past its Sept highs and cleared the handle to its 12 month base. Volume was up, but was not what you would call blowout. Still, a very solid pattern sporting outstanding 5 to 1 accumulation and surging money flow leading the way higher. Relative Strength posted a strong breakout on the move as well, a very good corroboration of the move. Looking to start positions on a further move from here and then add some on a breakout test.
Volume: 6.024M Avg Volume: 4.766M
BUY POINT: $28.32 Volume=700K Target=$32.62 Stop=$27.22
POSITION: UVM BY – Feb. $27.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1stocksplits1.htm”>Learn more about our Stock Split Report – Issued 5 Times Per Week
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Chart by http://www.stockcharts.com”>StockCharts.com
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3) Technical Playhttp://investmenthouse.com/quote/stkquote.php3?smbl=
AVO”>
AVO (Advanced Medical Optics–$39.39; -0.18; optionable): Medical instruments.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avo.html”>Company Profile
STATUS: Cup w/handle. A very nice, orderly 14 week base has formed at the 50 day EMA (38.03), consolidating the strong breakout and rally from April through June. Volume rallied Thursday and Friday as it did for most stocks, but it pushed AVO to the top of its short handle. Accumulation is a strong 5 to 2 (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 2 down price weeks on rising volume), showing net buyers and setting up the breakout move. Money flow is strong as well, and we are looking for AVO to follow it higher with another good volume jump.
Volume: 624.2K Avg Volume: 481.268K
BUY POINT: $40.12 Volume=722K Target=$47.75 Stop=$38.98
POSITION: AVO AH – Jan. $40c (50 delta) &/or Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1tech1.htm”>Learn more about our Technical Traders Report – Issued 5 Times Per Week Chart by http://www.stockcharts.com”>StockCharts.com
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4) Covered Call Playhttp://investmenthouse.com/quote/stkquote.php3?smbl=
STTX”>
STTX – Steel Technologies, Inc. is currently trading at $25.5 The November $25 Calls (SFUKE) are trading at $1.90. That provides a return of about 6% if STTX is above $25 on expiration Friday in November.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sttx.html”>Company Profile
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1coveredcalls1.htm”>Learn more about our Covered Call Tables – 8 Tables Updated 5 Times Per Week
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The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinions of Online Investment Services, LP., or Split Ventures, Ltd. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on the related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolios of writers for this issue may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on the related web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. No one asscociated herewith receives compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this newsletter or on the related websites.
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