Weekend Newsletter for October 31, 2004
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Weekend Newsletter for October 31, 2004
Table Of Contents 1) MARKET SUMMARY 2) POST-SPLIT PLAY 3) TECHNICAL PLAY 4) COVERED CALL PLAY
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http://www.investmenthouse.com/1splitnotification.htm”>Stock Split Notices http://www.investmenthouse.com/1questions.htm”>Investing Q & As http://www.investmenthouse.com/1glossary.htm”>Glossary
1) MARKET SUMMARY
Afternoon advance helps stocks post modest gains.
– Market struggles to advance after prior surge.
– GDP very solid, but dragged lower by oil imports and inventories even as consumer and business spending surges.
– Chicago PMI hits 17 year high but no one notices.
– Not bad numbers for a supposedly weak economy.
– Some focus shifts to large caps as the leaders take back seat Friday.
– Oil has softened some and now the next obstacle, the election, takes center stage.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1weekendmarketsummary.htm”>Read Full Weekend Summaryhttp://www.investmenthouse.com/1daily1.htm”>Learn more about our Daily Newsletter with Stock Picks! – Issued 5 Times Per Week
2) Stock Splits Playing stock splits can be very profitable, but it takes know-how. Our stock split service focuses on three main types of plays: 1) pre-announcement (where we forecast an upcoming split prior to the company making the announcement); 2) pre-split (these plays are made in the days leading up to the actual split day); and 3) post-split plays (plays made after the actual stock split where the stock is showing continued or renewed strength). For post-splits, we can play them as we would pre-splits (very short term), but we prefer to stretch our horizons, playing the trend. When playing options, we look further out, 2 or more months at least. We let the trend carry us along if there is one, but we will also take profits if the technical pattern degenerates, e.g., breaks a trendline. The main difference between post-splits and pre-splits plays is that we really have to like the pattern. Pre-splits can run right before their splits even with poor technical indicators. For post-splits, we are looking at the stocks from more of a longer term “would I buy this stock at this juncture?” position. Now there are times when a hot stock splits and investors pile in to get in while the stock is ‘cheaper.’ We play those, but with more of a short-term, pre-splits mentality in that we will be ready to get out fast if the momentum fades. Remember, everything we do has to pass muster with the market that day … don’t fight the market on these plays. Here’s a post-split play to watch and our current analysis.http://www.investmenthouse.com/1stocksplits1.htm” target=”_top”>http://www.investmenthouse.com/images2/cnbc.gif” width=”39″ height=”31″ border=”0″ alt=”CNBC Interview”>
Listen to Stock Split Report Editor Jon Johnson’s stock split interview on CNBC-TV![ http://www.investmenthouse2.com/cntdir.asp?name=JonJohnson-B” target=”_new”>Broadband | http://www.investmenthouse2.com/cntdir.asp?name=JonJohnson-D” target=”_new”>Dial-up ]
Chart by http://www.stockcharts.com”>StockCharts.com
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http://investmenthouse.com/quote/stkquote.php3?smbl=
AME”>
AME (Ametek–$32.92; +0.18; optionable): Electronic instruments & electric motors.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/ame.html”>Company Profile
STATUS: Flying plateau. AME split in March and rallied to July. It then fell into a 12 week cup with handle base, breaking out two weeks back on a tremendous volume surge. The past 6 sessions it has moved laterally on lower and lower volume, holding its breakout gains as the 10 day EMA (32.26) rises to meet it. In this type of tight, lateral move after a breakout, the 10 day EMA rising to meet the stock is often a catalyst that continues the breakout. May take a few more sessions, but getting ready with its strong money flow and excellent 5 to 1 accumulation in the base (5 up price weeks on rising volume to 1 down price week on rising volume), showing a lot of strong buying during the base.
Volume: 170.8K Avg Volume: 252.011K
BUY POINT: $33.25 Volume=375K Target=$38 Stop=$32.32
POSITION: AME CF – Mar. $30c (89 delta) &/or Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1stocksplits1.htm”>Learn more about our Stock Split Report – Issued 5 Times Per Week
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Chart by http://www.stockcharts.com”>StockCharts.com
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3) Technical Playhttp://investmenthouse.com/quote/stkquote.php3?smbl=
FLR”>
FLR (Fluor Corp.–$46.44; +1.23; optionable): Engineering, construction, maintenance, etc. services.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flr.html”>Company Profile
STATUS: Double bottom. A nice 16 week base formed at the 50 day EMA (44.25) is showing some strong volume to end the week. Thursday it got a bit wild after announcing earnings, but surged right back up Friday on even stronger volume, starting the breakout move over the middle hump in the double bottom. Excellent 6 to 1 accumulation in the base shows mostly buying and has set up the breakout and rally. Looking to move in on a continued move.
Volume: 915.9K Avg Volume: 561.401K
BUY POINT: $46.71 Volume=750K Target=$54 Stop=$45.89
POSITION: FLR AI – Jan. $45c (71 delta) &/or Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1tech1.htm”>Learn more about our Technical Traders Report – Issued 5 Times Per Week Chart by http://www.stockcharts.com”>StockCharts.com
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4) Covered Call Playhttp://investmenthouse.com/quote/stkquote.php3?smbl=
APSG”>
APSG – Applied Signal Technology, Inc. is currently trading at $30.29. The November $30 Calls (HIUKF) are trading at $1.50. That provides a return of about 4% if APSG is above $30 on expiration Friday in November.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apsg.html”>Company Profile
http://www.investmenthouse.com/1coveredcalls1.htm”>Learn more about our Covered Call Tables – 8 Tables Updated 5 Times Per Week
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The foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinions of Online Investment Services, LP., or Split Ventures, Ltd. This information is not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on the related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolios of writers for this issue may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on the related web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors. No one asscociated herewith receives compensation in any manner from any of the companies that are discussed in this newsletter or on the related websites.
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